Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – May 30, 2014 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reiterated the view that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession, seen most recently in these twelve sources :

• ECRI, May 9, 2014, “Q&A:  Where Are We In Economic Cycle“
• FOX Business video, January 22, 2014, “Secular Stagnation“
• BNN video, January 15, 2014, “Cyclical & Secular Outlook“
• CNBC interview, January 14, 2014, “Cyclical Outlook“
• BNN video, November 14, 2013, “Fed Policy & the Business Cycle“
• Bloomberg video, November 4, 2013, “Major Central Bank Actions in Line with ECRI“
• Bloomberg video, July 30, 2013, “U.S. Recession Began in 2012, ECRI’s Achuthan Says“
• ECRI, July 30, 2013, “Becoming Japan“
• ECRI, May 31, 2013, “What Wealth Effect?“
• ECRI, April 26, 2013, “Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again“
• ECRI, April 7, 2013, “Interview on Jobs & Recession” video
• ECRI, March 8, 2013, Interview Summary (provides links to 3 video interviews)
• ECRI, March 5, 2013, “Recession in the Yo-Yo Years“ (provides a link to a 17-page ECRI report dated March 2013 titled “The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years”)

Other past notable year 2012 reaffirmations of the September 30, 2011 recession call by ECRI were seen (in chronological order) on March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands”) as well as various interviews and statements the week of May 6, including:

• Bloomberg video, May 9, 2012:  ”Lakshman Achuthan on Renewed U.S. Recession Call: Video“
• ECRI, May 9, 2012:  ”Revoking Recession:  48th Time’s The Charm?”
• Wall Street Journal video, May 9, 2012:  “Free Market Economies Have Business Cycles”
• ECRI, May 11, 2012:  “Rising GDP Doesn’t Rule Out Recession”

Also, subsequent to May 2012:

• Bloomberg video, July 10, 2012:  “Recession Here”
• ECRI, September 7, 2012:  “Recession Evidence Obscured in Real Time”
• ECRI, September 13, 2012:  “The 2012 Recession:  Are We There Yet?”
• Bloomberg video, September 13, 2012:  “Recession Update.”
• CNN video, November 29, 2012:  “Official Recession Indicators“
• CNN video, November 29, 2012:  “ECRI Recession Update“
• Yahoo video, November 29, 2012: “Ignore GDP and the Fiscal Cliff, U.S. Is Already in Recession“
• Bloomberg video, November 29, 2012:  “Recession Underway“
• CNBC video, December 7, 2012:  “Definitional Recession Indicators“
• ECRI, December 7, 2012:  “The Tell-Tale Chart” including this excerpt:  “Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012.”

__

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of May 30, 2014 titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Weekly Update.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the May 30 release, indicating data through May 23, 2014.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

-

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

-

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1920.57 as this post is written

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of May 30, 2014

Doug Short had a blog post of May 30, 2014 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment :  A Disappointing 81.9 May Final“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find highly noteworthy.  Of course, the continuing subdued absolute levels of these two surveys is disconcerting.

Also, I find the “behavior” of these readings to be quite disparate as compared to the other post-recession periods, as shown in the charts between the gray shaded areas (the gray areas denote recessions as defined by the NBER.)

While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings to be very problematical, especially in light of a variety of other highly disconcerting measures highlighted throughout this blog.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1918.92 as this post is written

Corporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP

In the last post (“1st Quarter 2014 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax.

There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis.

One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP.  I feel that this metric is important for a variety of reasons.  As well, the measure is important to a variety of parties, including investors, businesses, and government policy makers.

As one can see from the long-term chart below (updated through the first quarter), (After Tax) Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP is at levels that can be seen as historically (very) high.  While there are many reasons as to why this is so, from a going-forward standpoint I think it is important to recognize both that such a notable condition exists, as well as contemplate and/or plan for such factors and conditions that would come about if (and in my opinion “when”) a more historically “normal” ratio of Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP occurs.  This topic can be very complex in nature, and depends upon myriad factors.  In my opinion it deserves far greater recognition.

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed May 29, 2014

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1919.19 as this post is written

1st Quarter 2014 Corporate Profits

Today's GDP release (Q1, 2nd Estimate)(pdf) was accompanied by the BLS Corporate Profits report for the 1st Quarter.

Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits.  For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (last updated May 29, 2014, with a value of $1879.7 Billion) :

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Here is the Corporate Profits After Tax measure shown on a Percentage Change from a Year Ago perspective:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Corporate Profits After Tax [CP]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis; accessed May 29, 2014; https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1917.64 as this post is written

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the May 29, 2014 update is -1.228.

Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.

Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).

Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:

The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm

Here are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.

The NFCI chart below was last updated on May 29, incorporating data from January 5,1973 to May 23, 2014, on a weekly basis.  The May 23, 2014 value is -.94:

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed May 29, 2014:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI

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The ANFCI chart below was last updated on May 29, incorporating data from January 5,1973 to May 23, 2014, on a weekly basis.  The May 23, 2014 value is -.22:

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed May 29, 2014:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ANFCI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1913.68 as this post is written

House Prices Reference Chart

As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through March, as well as for the Case-Shiller National Index, which is through Q1), from the CalculatedRisk blog post of May 27 titled “Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio” :

(click on chart to enlarge image)

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1911.91 as this post is written

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through April 2014

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.

For reference, below are charts depicting this measure.

First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through April, last updated on May 27, 2014.  This value is 239,947 ($ Millions) :

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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Here is the chart depicting this measure on a “Percentage Change from a Year Ago” basis:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Manufacturers’ New Orders:  Durable Goods [DGORDER] ; U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau ; accessed May 27, 2014;

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1908.02 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – May 23, 2014 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reiterated the view that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession, seen most recently in these twelve sources :

• ECRI, May 9, 2014, "Q&A:  Where Are We In Economic Cycle"
• FOX Business video, January 22, 2014, “Secular Stagnation“
• BNN video, January 15, 2014, “Cyclical & Secular Outlook“
• CNBC interview, January 14, 2014, “Cyclical Outlook“
• BNN video, November 14, 2013, “Fed Policy & the Business Cycle“
• Bloomberg video, November 4, 2013, “Major Central Bank Actions in Line with ECRI“
• Bloomberg video, July 30, 2013, “U.S. Recession Began in 2012, ECRI’s Achuthan Says“
• ECRI, July 30, 2013, “Becoming Japan“
• ECRI, May 31, 2013, “What Wealth Effect?“
• ECRI, April 26, 2013, “Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again“
• ECRI, April 7, 2013, “Interview on Jobs & Recession” video
• ECRI, March 8, 2013, Interview Summary (provides links to 3 video interviews)
• ECRI, March 5, 2013, “Recession in the Yo-Yo Years“ (provides a link to a 17-page ECRI report dated March 2013 titled “The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years”)

Other past notable year 2012 reaffirmations of the September 30, 2011 recession call by ECRI were seen (in chronological order) on March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands”) as well as various interviews and statements the week of May 6, including:

• Bloomberg video, May 9, 2012:  ”Lakshman Achuthan on Renewed U.S. Recession Call: Video“
• ECRI, May 9, 2012:  ”Revoking Recession:  48th Time’s The Charm?”
• Wall Street Journal video, May 9, 2012:  “Free Market Economies Have Business Cycles”
• ECRI, May 11, 2012:  “Rising GDP Doesn’t Rule Out Recession”

Also, subsequent to May 2012:

• Bloomberg video, July 10, 2012:  “Recession Here”
• ECRI, September 7, 2012:  “Recession Evidence Obscured in Real Time”
• ECRI, September 13, 2012:  “The 2012 Recession:  Are We There Yet?”
• Bloomberg video, September 13, 2012:  “Recession Update.”
• CNN video, November 29, 2012:  “Official Recession Indicators“
• CNN video, November 29, 2012:  “ECRI Recession Update“
• Yahoo video, November 29, 2012: “Ignore GDP and the Fiscal Cliff, U.S. Is Already in Recession“
• Bloomberg video, November 29, 2012:  “Recession Underway“
• CNBC video, December 7, 2012:  “Definitional Recession Indicators“
• ECRI, December 7, 2012:  “The Tell-Tale Chart” including this excerpt:  “Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012.”

__

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of May 23, 2014 titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Weekly Update.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the May 23 release, indicating data through May 16, 2014.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

-

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

-

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1899.90 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators May 2014

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The May 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of May 22, 2014:

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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of May 16, 2014 (incorporating data through May 9, 2014) the WLI was at 136.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at 4.9%.

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through May 17, 2014:

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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the May 22, 2014 press release, the LEI was at 101.4 and the CEI was at 108.5 in April.

An excerpt from the May 22 release:

“Despite a brutal winter which brought the economy to a halt, the overall trend in the leading economic index has remained positive,” said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board. “If consumers continue to spend, and businesses pick up the pace of investment, the industrial core of the economy will benefit and GDP growth could move closer towards the 3 percent range.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of May 22 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increased in April“ :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1892.49 as this post is written

Current Economic Situation

With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 36 “Building Financial Danger” posts.

My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near the bottom of every blog post since August 15, 2010.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1892.49 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of May 16, 2014:

from page 18:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

CY Bottom-Up EPS vs. Top-Down Mean EPS (Trailing 26-Weeks) 

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from page 19:

Calendar Year Bottom-Up EPS Actuals & Estimates

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1888.03 as this post is written

S&P500 Earnings Estimates For Years 2014, 2015, And 2016

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of May 21, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts:

Year 2014 estimate:

$119.60/share

Year 2015 estimate:

$133.09/share

Year 2016 estimate:

$147.11/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1888.03 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2014 & 2015 – As Of May 15, 2014

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of May 15, 2014:

Year 2014 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $119.71/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $120.94/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $114.40/share

Year 2015 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $137.34/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $148.18/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $144.60/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1888.03 as this post is written