The Doug Short site had a post of August 30, 2019 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Lowest Level Since October 2016“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
![Conference Board Consumer Confidence](https://www.economicgreenfield.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Dshort-8-30-19-Conference-Board-Consumer-Confidence.png)
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![University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.economicgreenfield.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Dshort-8-30-19-Michigan-Consumer-Sentiment.png)
There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find highly noteworthy. Of course, until the sudden upswing in 2014, the continued subdued absolute levels of these two surveys was disconcerting.
Also, I find the “behavior” of these readings to be quite disparate as compared to the other post-recession periods, as shown in the charts between the gray shaded areas (the gray areas denote recessions as defined by the NBER.)
While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings to be notable, especially in light of a variety of other highly disconcerting measures highlighted throughout this site.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2932.77 as this post is written