The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The September 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 23, 2024:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of .12:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 23, 2024:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of -.17:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 23, 2024:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of September 19, 2024, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through September 14, 2024, with last value .214467:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the September 19, 2024 Conference Board press release the LEI was 100.2 in August, the CEI was 112.7 in August, and the LAG was 119.5 in August.
An excerpt from the release:
“In August, the US LEI remained on a downward trajectory and posted its sixth consecutive monthly decline,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The erosion continued to be driven by new orders, which recorded its lowest value since May 2023. A negative interest rate spread, persistently gloomy consumer expectations of future business conditions, and lower stock prices after the early-August financial market tumult also weighed on the Index. Overall, the LEI continued to signal headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to lose momentum in the second half of this year as higher prices, elevated interest rates, and mounting debt erode domestic demand. However, in the Fed’s September 2024 Summary of Economic Projections, policymakers suggested 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are likely by the end of this year, which should lower borrowing costs and support stronger economic activity in 2025.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) update of September 19, 2024:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 5711.92 as this post is written
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