On June 18, 2025, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2025. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Economic Outlook Index Declines Further in Q2“:
Business Roundtable today released its Q2 2025 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months.
The overall Index dropped by 15 points from last quarter to 69, well below its historic average of 83. The decline is the result of decreases in all three subindices, driven by a downward shift in CEO plans and expectations, most notably in the employment subindex.
On May 29, 2025, The Conference Board released the Q2 2025 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 34, down from the previous reading of 60. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:
“CEO Confidence collapsed in Q2 2025 after surging in Q1,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board. “All components of the Measure weakened into pessimism territory. CEOs’ views about current economic conditions led the plunge, registering the largest quarter-on-quarter decline in almost 50 years. Expectations for the future also plummeted, with more than half of CEOs now expecting conditions to worsen over the next six months, both for the economy overall and in their own industries. CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries—a measure not included in calculating the topline Confidence measure—also fell sharply in Q2. The vast majority of CEOs (83%) said they expect a recession in the next 12-18 months, nearly matching the percentage who feared recession in late 2022 and early 2023. The US–China trade deal announced on May 12 seems to have eased, but not removed, concerns about the future. CEOs responding before and after May 12 reported similar very negative views about the current state of the economy and their own industries. However, the CEOs who responded after May 12 tended to be somewhat less pessimistic about the future and fewer expected a deep recession.“
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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 5967.84 as this post is written
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