On December 11, 2025, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2025. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Index Improves But Remains Below Historic Average“:
The overall Index posted a four-point increase from last quarter to 80, below its historic average of 83. The slight shift reflects a modest uptick in CEO expectations for sales, with plans for capital investment inching up but essentially remaining flat. Additionally, while hiring plans rose by four points, this marks the third consecutive quarter in which more CEOs have anticipated that their company’s employment will decrease than increase.
On October 16, 2025, The Conference Board released the Q4 2025 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 48, down from the previous reading of 49. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:
“CEO confidence weakened slightly in the fourth quarter, signaling continued caution among leaders of large firms,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board. “CEOs’ views of general economic conditions now versus six months ago remained slightly negative while CEO’s six-month expectations for the economy turned from neutral to pessimistic. CEOs’ expectations for their own industry were stable, still showing cautious optimism. Meanwhile CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries—a measure not included in calculating the topline CEO Confidence measure—was slightly less negative. Over the next 12-18 months, most CEOs (64%) expected a mild economic slowdown with slightly increased inflation pressure. Only 4% expected a recession. Geopolitical instability and cyber risks continued to dominate top business risks impacting CEOs’ industries, closely followed by AI and innovation. Meanwhile, trade and tariffs risks were pushed down to fifth place by legal and regulatory risks.”
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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 6827.41 as this post is written
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