On June 12, 2024, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2024. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Q2 Economic Index in Line with Long-Term Average, Reflecting a Stable U.S. Economy“:
Business Roundtable today released its Q2 2024 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months.
The overall Index decreased slightly by 1 point from last quarter to 84 and is nearly at its historic average of 83. CEO plans for capital investment are down marginally, and expectations for sales are up modestly from last quarter. Additionally, plans for hiring remain the same as in the first quarter.
The Survey’s three subindices were as follows:
Plans for hiring held flat, maintaining a value of 60.
Plans for capital investment decreased 8 points to a value of 70.
Expectations for sales increased 5 points to a value of 123.In their third estimate of 2024 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.3% growth for the year, up from the 2.1% growth projected last quarter.
On May 9, 2024, The Conference Board released the Q2 2024 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 54, up from the previous reading of 53. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:
“CEOs’ views about the economy have shifted from six months ago,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Trustee of The Conference Board. “Recession fears have faded considerably: Only 35% of CEOs surveyed in April anticipate a recession within the next 12 to 18 months, down from 72% in Q4 2023. Nonetheless, CEOs remain only cautiously optimistic. Expectations for the economy six-months ahead were a tad worse compared to Q1, with fewer CEOs saying conditions will be ‘much better’ or ‘better’ and more saying conditions will be the ‘same.’ Regarding expectations for their own industries, fewer CEOs expect conditions to worsen, while 46% think conditions will be the ‘same.’”
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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 5434.45 as this post is written
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