CEO Confidence Surveys 1Q 2026 – Notable Excerpts

On March 11, 2026, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2026.   Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Rises in Q1 2026“:

The overall Index increased by nine points from last quarter to 89, above its long-term historic average of 83. CEOs reported higher numbers across all three subindices. Notably, the capex and sales subindices are in expansion territory while the employment subindex is neutral.

On February 26, 2026, The Conference Board released the Q1 2026 Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 59, up from the previous reading of 48. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:

“CEO Confidence improved significantly in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting restored optimism among leaders of large firms,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “CEOs’ views of general economic conditions now compared to six months ago turned moderately positive, while CEO’s six-month expectations for the economy flipped from slight pessimism at the end of 2025 to moderate optimism in February 2026. CEOs’ expectations for their own industry improved further, progressing from mild cautiousness to solid confidence. Finally, CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries—a measure not included in calculating the topline CEO Confidence measure—also rose significantly to positive territory.”

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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6775.80 as this post is written

NFIB Small Business Optimism – February 2026

The February 2026 NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, March 10, 2026.

The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased by .5 points to 98.8.

Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with):

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.5 points in February to 98.8 but remained slightly above the 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index decreased three points from January to 88.

Below is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in the February 2026 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends (pdf) report:

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6778.12 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – March 8, 2026 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra long-term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets – will occur. [note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has paramount significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” label]

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through March 6, 2026 with a last price of 6740.02), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6740.02 as this post is written

“Not In Labor Force” Statistic – As Of March 2026

In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working.

Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in which I discussed various facets of this measure.

Below is an updated chart regarding this statistic.  The current figure, last updated on March 6, 2026 depicting data through February 2026, is 104.560 Million people (Not Seasonally Adjusted):

Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Not in Labor Force [LNU05000000], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed March 8, 2026: 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU05000000

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6740.02 as this post is written

Philadelphia Fed – 1st Quarter 2026 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 1st Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on March 6, 2026.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:

Real GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2026:  2.5%

full-year 2027:  2.1%

full-year 2028:  2.1%

full-year 2029:  1.9%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2026: 4.5%

for 2027: 4.4%

for 2028: 4.4%

for 2029: 4.4%

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Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 17.8%, 20.9%, 21.9%, 22.7%, and 23.6% for each of the quarters from Q1 2026 through Q1 2027, respectively.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2035) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 2.2% to 2.9% range.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6764.15 as this post is written

Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings.

Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings.

While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic trends.

The first chart depicts Average Hourly Earnings Of All Employees: Total Private (FRED series CES0500000003)(current value = $37.32):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 3-6-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees:  Total Private [CES0500000003] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed March 6, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES0500000003

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This next chart depicts this same measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis.   While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 3-6-26)

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There are slightly different measures available from a longer-term perspective. Pictured below is another measure, the Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees – Total Private (FRED series AHETPI)(current value = $32.03):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 3-6-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees:  Total Private [AHETPI] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics;  accessed March 6, 2026: 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI

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Pictured below is this AHETPI measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis.   While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 3-6-26)

I will continue to actively monitor these trends, especially given the post-2009 dynamics.

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I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6738.41 as this post is written

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Charts As Of March 6, 2026

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”

Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.

For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.

Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 4.4% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed March 6, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

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Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 7.9% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons  [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed March 6, 2026:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6732.89 as this post is written

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – March 2026

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.

The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 11.1 weeks):

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 3-6-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed March 6, 2026:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED

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Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 1.899 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed March 6, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV

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Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 158.466 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed March 6, 2026:  https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

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Our unemployment problem is severe.  The underlying dynamics of the current – and especially future – unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome.  These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.

My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” label.  This commentary includes the page titled “U.S. Unemployment Trends,” which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6739.49 as this post is written