Advisor Perspectives had a post of April 28, 2026 (“Consumer Confidence Edged Up Again Despite Spiking Prices“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
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While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings and trends to be notable, especially in light of a variety of other highly disconcerting measures highlighted throughout this site.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.
The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following:
Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.
Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.
Here is the “M1 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on April 28, 2026 depicting data through March 2026, with a value of $19,436.3 Billion:
Here is the “M1 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 4.7%:
Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M1 Money Stock [M1SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 28, 2026: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:
Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.
Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on April 28, 2026, depicting data through March 2026, with a value of $22,686.0 Billion:
Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 4.6%:
Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 Money Stock [M2SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 28, 2026: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, sustainable long-term economic vitality is to be realized.
There are an array of indications and other “warning signs” – many readily apparent – that current economic activity and financial market performance is accompanied by exceedingly perilous dynamics.
I have written extensively about this peril, including in the following:
My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well. Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact. This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.
For long-term reference purposes, here is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1900, depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale (updated through April 22, 2026 with a last value of 49,490.03):
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.
For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of April 10, 2026:
from page 34:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
from page 35:
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)
The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard”
(pdf) of April 10, 2026, and represent an aggregation of individual
S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the
Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46/share;
the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is
$132.00/share; the Year 2018 value is $161.93/share; the Year 2019 value
is $162.93/share; the Year 2020 value is $139.72/share; the year 2021
value is $208.12/share; the year 2022 value is $218.09/share; the year
2023 value is $221.36/share; and the year 2024 value is $242.73/share:
Year 2025 estimate:
$271.29/share
Year 2026 estimate:
$323.73/share
Year 2027 estimate:
$377.94/share
Year 2028 estimate:
$425.86/share
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I
post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be
carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are
aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of
the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
The following is the latest update of 9 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation.
I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years.
These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.
All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.
(click on charts to enlarge images)
Housing starts (last update March 12, 2026):
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST/, April 14, 2026.
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The Federal Deficit (last updated April 3, 2026):
U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYFSD/, April 14, 2026.
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Federal Net Outlays (last updated April 3, 2026):
U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, April 14, 2026.
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State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated April 9, 2026):
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State and local government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes: Income taxes [ASLPITAX], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ASLPITAX/, April 14, 2026.
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Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated April 10, 2026):
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks [TOTLL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTLL/, April 14, 2026.
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Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated April 10, 2026):
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks [TOTBKCR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR/, April 14, 2026.
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Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated April 3, 2026):
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED/, April 14, 2026.
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Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated April 3, 2026):
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART/, April 14, 2026.
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index Three Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated March 26, 2026):
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CFNAIMA3/, April 14, 2026.
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I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
An excerpt:
Recent months have been marked by slower growth, stubborn inflation and a weaker job market. Economists worry the war in Iran could exacerbate all three.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 33%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 85%. For reference, the average response in January’s survey [the previously published survey] was 27%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 68 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted April 3 – April 9. Not every economist answered every question.
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Economic Forecasts
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2026: 1.99%
full-year 2027: 2.16%
full-year 2028: 2.18%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2026: 4.49%
December 2027: 4.35%
December 2028: 4.25%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2026: 4.22%
December 2027: 4.16%
December 2028: 4.12%
CPI:
December 2026: 3.19%
December 2027: 2.29%
December 2028: 2.30%
Core PCE:
full-year 2026: 2.93%
full-year 2027: 2.35%
full-year 2028: 2.19%
(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
