Wednesday, February 25, 2026

State of the Union Address – Notable Excerpts

I found President Trump’s State of the Union Address last night (February 24, 2026) to contain some noteworthy comments.  While I could comment extensively on many parts of the speech, for now I will indicate excerpts that I found most relevant with regard to the economic situation, and may comment upon them at a future point.  I am highlighting these excerpts for many reasons; it should be noted that I do not necessarily agree with any or all of them.

Here are the excerpts I found most relevant, in the order they occurred in the speech:

Today our border is secure. Today our border is secure, our spirit is restored, inflation is plummeting, incomes are rising fast, the roaring economy is roaring like never before, our enemies are scared, our military and police are stacked, and America is respected again, perhaps like never before. 

also:

The Biden administration and its allies in Congress gave us the worst inflation in the history of our country. But in 12 months, my administration has driven core inflation down to the lowest level in more than five years. And in the last three months of 2025, it was down to 1.7%. Gasoline, which reached a peak of over $6 a gallon in some states under my predecessor and was, quite honestly, a disaster, is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states, and in some places $1.99 a gallon. And when I visited the great state of Iowa just a few weeks ago, I even saw $1.85 a gallon for gasoline, the lowest in four years, and falling fast.

And the annual cost of a typical new mortgage is down almost $5,000 just since I took office, one year. And lower interest rates will solve the Biden-created housing problem, while at the same time protecting the values of those people who already own a house that really feel rich for the first time in their lives. We want to protect those values. We want to keep those values up. We’re going to do both — and keep it that way. The stock market has set 53 all-time record highs since the election. Think of that, one year, boosting pensions, 401Ks and retirement accounts for the millions and the millions of Americans, they’re all gaining. Everybody is up, way up. In four long years, the last administration got less than $1 trillion in new investment in the United States. And when I say less, substantially less. In 12 months, I secured commitments for more than $18 trillion pouring in from all over the globe.

Think of it – much less than $1 trillion for four years, versus much more than $18 trillion for one year. What a difference a president makes. A short time ago, we were a dead country. Now we are the hottest country anywhere in the world. The hottest. As thousands of new businesses are forming and factories, plants and laboratories are being built, we have added 70,000 new construction jobs in just a very short period of time. Getting bigger and bigger and stronger. Nobody can believe what they’re watching. American oil production is up by more than 600,000 barrels a day. And we just received from our new friend and partner, Venezuela, more than 80 million barrels of oil. American natural gas production is at an all-time high. Because I kept my promise to drill, baby, drill.

More Americans are working today than at any time in the history of our country. Think about that. Any time in the history of our country. More working today, and 100% of all jobs created under my administration have been in the private sector. We ended DEI in America. We cut a record number of job-killing regulations, and in one year we have lifted 2.4 million Americans – a record – off of food stamps. And for all of these reasons, I say tonight, members of Congress, the state of our Union is strong. Our country is winning again. In fact, we’re winning so much that we really don’t know what to do about it. People are asking me, please, please, please, Mr. President, we’re winning too much. We can’t take it anymore. We’re not used to winning in our country until you came along, we’re just always losing. But now we’re winning too much. And I say, no, no, no, you’re going to win again. You’re going to win big. You’re going to win bigger than ever. And to prove that point, to prove that point, here with us tonight is a group of winners who just made the entire nation proud. The men’s gold medal Olympic hockey team. Come on in.

also:

One of the primary reasons for our country’s stunning economic turnaround, the biggest in history, where the Dow Jones broke 50,000, four years ahead of schedule, and the S&P hit 7000 where it wasn’t supposed to do it for many years, were tariffs. I used these tariffs, took in hundreds of billions of dollars to make great deals for our country, both economically and on a national security basis. Everything was working well. Countries that were ripping us off for decades are now paying us hundreds of billions of dollars. They were ripping us so badly. You all know that. Everybody knows it. Even the Democrats know it. They just don’t want to say it. And yet these countries are now happy and so are we. We made deals — the deals are all done and they’re happy. They’re not making money like they used to. But we’re making a lot of money. There was no inflation, tremendous growth. And the big story was how Donald Trump called the economy correctly. And 22 Nobel Prize winners in economics, didn’t. They got it totally wrong. They got it really wrong. And then just four days ago, an unfortunate ruling from the United States Supreme Court, it just came down, came down. Very unfortunate ruling.

But the good news is that almost all countries and corporations want to keep the deal that they already made — right, Scott? — knowing that the legal power that I, as president, have to make a new deal could be far worse for them, and, therefore, they will continue to work along the same successful path that we had negotiated before the Supreme Court’s unfortunate involvement. So, despite the disappointing ruling, these powerful countries saving, is saving our country the kind of money we’re taking in, peace protecting — many of the wars I’ve settled was because of the threat of tariffs, I wouldn’t have been able to settle them without — will remain in place under fully approved and tested alternative legal statutes. And they have been tested for a long time. They’re a little more complex, but they’re actually probably better — leading to a solution that will be even stronger than before. Congressional action will not be necessary. It’s already time-tested and approved. And as time goes by, I believe the tariffs, paid for by foreign countries, will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern-day system of income tax, taking a great financial burden off the people that I love.

Moving forward, factories, jobs, investment and trillions and trillions of dollars will continue pouring into the United States of America because we finally have a president who puts America first. I put America first. I love America. For decades before I came along, we had the exact opposite. From trade to health care, from energy to immigration, everything was stolen and rigged in order to drain the wealth out of the productive, hardworking people who make our country great, who make our country run. Under Biden and his corrupt partners in Congress and beyond, it reached a breaking point with the Green New Scam, open borders for everyone — they poured in by the millions and millions from prisons, from mental institutions, they were murderers — 11,888 murders — they came into our country, you allowed that to happen. And record-setting inflation that cost the typical family $34,000 in just a speck of time.

Now, the same people in this chamber who voted for those disasters suddenly used the word affordability, a word, they just used it because somebody gave it to them, knowing full well that they caused and created the increased prices that all of our citizens had to endure. You caused that problem. You caused that problem. They knew their statements were a lie, they knew it, they knew their statements were a dirty, rotten lie. Their policies created the high prices. Our policies are rapidly ending them. We are doing really well. Those prices are plummeting downward. The price of eggs is down 60%, Madam Secretary, thank you. The cost of chicken, butter, fruit, hotels, automobiles, rent is lower today than when I took office by a lot. And even beef, which was very high, is starting to come down significantly. Just hold on a little while. We’ll get that down. And soon you will see numbers that few people would think were possible to achieve just a short time ago.

Nobody can believe when they see the kind of numbers, and especially energy, when they see energy going down to numbers like that, they cannot believe it. It’s like another big tax cut. I’m also confronting one of the biggest rip-offs of our times, the crushing cost of health care, caused by you. Since the passage of the “Unaffordable Care Act,” sometimes referred to as Obamacare, big insurance companies have gotten rich. It was meant for the insurance companies, not for the people. With our government giving them hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars a year, as their stock prices soared 1,000, 1,200, 1,400 and even 1,700%, like nothing else. That’s why I introduced the great health care plan. I want to stop all payments to big insurance companies and instead give that money directly to the people, so they can buy their own health care, which will be better health care at a much lower cost. In addition, my plan requires maximum price transparency. That’s a big deal. Sounds so simple, so big. And I did that in my first term and the Democrats immediately terminated it, with the full knowledge that they were doing a very bad thing for the people. Costs were going to go way up and that’s what happened, and now I’m bringing them way down on health care and everything else.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6946.20 as this post is written 

Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of February 24, 2026

Advisor Perspectives had a post of February 24, 2026 (“Consumer Confidence Inched Up in February“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence 91.2

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 56.6

While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings and trends to be notable, especially in light of a variety of other highly disconcerting measures highlighted throughout this site.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6886.52 as this post is written

Money Supply Charts Through January 2026

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.

The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following:

Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.

Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.

Here is the “M1 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on February 24, 2026 depicting data through January 2026, with a value of $19,194.4 Billion:

M1SL

Here is the “M1 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 4.0%:

M1SL Percent Change From Year Ago

Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M1 Money Stock [M1SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 24, 2026: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:

Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.

Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on February 24, 2026, depicting data through January 2026, with a value of $22,442.1 Billion:

M2SL

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 4.3%:

M2SL Percent Change From Year Ago

Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 Money Stock [M2SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 24, 2026: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6889.84 as this post is written

Monday, February 23, 2026

Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) Q1 2026

On February 23, 2026, the Fannie Mae Q1 2026 Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) results were released.  This survey is done on a quarterly basis.

Various Q1 2026 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey information is available, including the chart seen below:

As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, as depicted by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index, will continually climb.

The detail of the survey is interesting.  Of the survey respondents, only four (of the displayed responses) forecasts a cumulative price decrease through 2030.

The Median Cumulative Home Price Appreciation for years 2026-2030 is seen as 2.15%, 4.65%, 7.74%, 11.18%, and 14.80%, respectively.

For a variety of reasons, I continue to believe that these forecasts will prove far too optimistic.

I have written extensively about the residential real estate situation.  For a variety of reasons, it is exceedingly complex.  While many people continue to have an optimistic view regarding future residential real estate prices, in my opinion such a view is unsupported on an “all things considered” basis.  Residential real estate is an exceedingly large asset bubble. As such, from these price levels there exists potential for a price decline of outsized magnitude. 

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6833.34 as this post is written

The U.S. Economic Situation – February 23, 2026 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, sustainable long-term economic vitality is to be realized.

There are an array of indications and other “warning signs” – many readily apparent – that current economic activity and financial market performance is accompanied by exceedingly perilous dynamics.

I have written extensively about this peril, including in the following:

Building Financial Danger” (ongoing updates)

My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well.  Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact.  This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.

For long-term reference purposes, here is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1900, depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale (updated through February 20, 2026 with a last value of 49,625.97):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

DJIA since 1900

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6909.51 as this post is written

Friday, February 20, 2026

U.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through January 2026

For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through January 2026.

While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability.

A description of this measure, as seen in FRED:

This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero.

The chart, on a monthly basis from January 1990 – January 2026, with a last reading of .00000, last updated on February 20, 2026:

STLPPMDEF

Here is this same U.S. deflation probability measure since 2008:

STLPPMDEF since 2008

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Deflation Probability [STLPPMDEF], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 20, 2026: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLPPMDEF

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I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6901.01 as this post is written

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated As Of February 20, 2026

Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures.

All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2025, and were last updated as of February 20, 2026.

Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 1.653:

M1V

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 20, 2026:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1V

Velocity of M2 Money Stock, current value = 1.409:

M2V

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 20, 2026: 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6882.85 as this post is written

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 – 4th Quarter 2025

For reference purposes, below is a chart reflecting Real GDP, as depicted, with value $24,111.830.  This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) of February 20, 2026:

GDPC1

source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 20, 2026: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6895.36 as this post is written