The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:
Real GDP: (annual average level)
full-year 2025: 2.4%
full-year 2026: 2.2%
full-year 2027: 1.8%
full-year 2028: 2.0%
Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)
for 2025: 4.2%
for 2026: 4.2%
for 2027: 4.3%
for 2028: 4.3%
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Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 9.7%, 15.4%, 19.8%, 23.3% and 23.7% for each of the quarters from Q1 2025 through Q1 2026, respectively.
As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2034) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each. Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE. Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 2.1% to 3.0% range.
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.
Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written. While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.
Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra long-term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets – will occur. [note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has paramount significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” label]
As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through February 7, 2025 with a last price of 6025.99), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
For reference purposes, below are five charts that display growth in payroll employment, as depicted by the Total Nonfarm Payroll measures (FRED data series PAYEMS).
PAYEMS, which is seasonally adjusted, is defined in Financial Reserve Economic Data [FRED] as:
All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number of U.S. workers in the economy that excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed. This measure accounts for approximately 80 percent of the workers who contribute to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
This measure provides useful insights into the current economic situation because it can represent the number of jobs added or lost in an economy. Increases in employment might indicate that businesses are hiring which might also suggest that businesses are growing. Additionally, those who are newly employed have increased their personal incomes, which means (all else constant) their disposable incomes have also increased, thus fostering further economic expansion.
Generally, the U.S. labor force and levels of employment and unemployment are subject to fluctuations due to seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusts the data to offset the seasonal effects to show non-seasonal changes: for example, women’s participation in the labor force; or a general decline in the number of employees, a possible indication of a downturn in the economy. To closely examine seasonal and non-seasonal changes, the BLS releases two monthly statistical measures: the seasonally adjusted All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) and All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYNSA), which is not seasonally adjusted.
The series comes from the ‘Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey).’
The source code is: CES0000000001
The first chart shows the monthly change in Total Nonfarm Payroll from the year 2000 through the current January 2025 report (January 2025 value of 143 (Thousands)):
(click on charts to enlarge images)
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed February 8, 2025; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
The second chart shows a longer-term chart of the same month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Payroll (reports of February 1939 through the present report of January 2025):
The third chart shows the aggregate number of Total Nonfarm Payroll, from the reports of January 1939 – January 2025 (January 2025 value of 159.069 million):
The fourth chart shows this same measure of aggregate number of Total Nonfarm Payroll as seen above but presented on a LOG scale:
Lastly, the fifth chart shows the Total Nonfarm Payroll number on a “Percent Change from Year Ago” basis from January 1940 – January 2025: (January 2025 value of 1.3%)
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings.
While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic trends.
The first chart depicts Average Hourly Earnings Of All Employees: Total Private (FRED series CES0500000003)(current value = $35.87):
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 2-7-25)
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees: Total Private [CES0500000003] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed February 7, 2025: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES0500000003
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This next chart depicts this same measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis. While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 2-7-25)
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There are slightly different measures available from a longer-term perspective. Pictured below is another measure, the Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees – Total Private (FRED series AHETPI)(current value = $30.84):
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 2-7-25)
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Total Private [AHETPI] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed February 7, 2025: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI
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Pictured below is this AHETPI measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis. While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 2-7-25)
I will continue to actively monitor these trends, especially given the post-2009 dynamics.
_________
I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”
Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.
For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site. The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:
Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.
Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 4.0% unemployment rate:
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed February 7, 2025: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE
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Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 7.5% unemployment rate:
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed February 7, 2025: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.
However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.
The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site. Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 10.4 weeks):
(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 2-7-25)
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed February 7, 2025: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED
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Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 1.443 million):
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed February 7, 2025: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV
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Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 159.069 million):
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed February 7, 2025: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS
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Our unemployment problem is severe. The underlying dynamics of the current – and especially future – unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome. These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.
My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” label. This commentary includes the page titled “U.S. Unemployment Trends,” which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 6, 2025 update (reflecting data through January 31, 2025) is -.7640:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 6, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI4
Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.
Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).
Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.
The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.
For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:
Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.
The NFCI chart below was last updated on February 5, 2025 incorporating data from January 8, 1971 through January 31, 2025 on a weekly basis. The January 31 value is -.65329:
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 6, 2025: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI
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The ANFCI chart below was last updated on February 5, 2025 incorporating data from January 8, 1971 through January 31, 2025, on a weekly basis. The January 31 value is -.69419:
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 6, 2025: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ANFCI
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate.
The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at elevated levels.
Below is a small sampling of charts that depict weak growth or contraction, and a brief comment for each:
University of Louisville and Oklahoma State University: LoDI National Index (LODINIM066N)
The LoDI National Index is described in FRED as:
The LoDI Index uses linear regression analysis to combine cargo volume data from rail, barge, air, and truck transit, along with various economic factors. The resulting indicator is designed to predict upcoming changes in the level of logistics and distribution activity in the US and is represented by a value between 1 and 100. An index at or above 50 represents a healthy level of activity in the industry.
As seen in the long-term chart below, the index appears to have recently peaked.
Shown below is a chart with data through February 2025 (last value of 75.49922), last updated February 3, 2025:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -3.4%:
source: University of Louisville. Logistics and Distribution Institute and Oklahoma State University, University of Louisville and Oklahoma State University: LoDI National Index [LODINIM066N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 4, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LODINIM066N
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All Employees, Temporary Help Services (TEMPHELPS)
I have written extensively about many facets of employment and unemployment, as the current and future unemployment issue is of tremendous importance yet is in many ways misunderstood.
One theory regarding employment is that hiring cycles typically begin with an uptake in temporary employment. Conversely, due to various factors a reduction in temporary employees can be an (early) indicator of lessening labor demand.
Shown below is this TEMPHELPS measure with last value of 2,660.2 (Thousands) through December 2024, last updated January 10, 2025:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -3.8%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Temporary Help Services [TEMPHELPS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 4, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEMPHELPS
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Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks (HTRUCKSSA)
Sales of “Heavy Weight Trucks” (HTRUCKSSA) has recently been volatile. Shown below is this measure with last value of 35.152 Thousand through December 2024, last updated January 31, 2025:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -9.5%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks [HTRUCKSSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 4, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HTRUCKSSA
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Rail Freight Carloads (RAILFRTCARLOADSD11)
“Rail Freight Carloads” continues to show a generally downward progression from a longer-term perspective. Shown below is a chart with data through November 2024 (last value of 946,622 Carloads), last updated January 17, 2025:
Here is the same measure on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with value -3.0%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Rail Freight Carloads [RAILFRTCARLOADSD11], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 4, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RAILFRTCARLOADSD11
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Other Indicators
As mentioned previously, many other indicators discussed on this site indicate weak economic growth or economic contraction, if not outright (gravely) problematical economic conditions.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation