Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of May 15, 2026:

from page 32:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

from page 33:

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7408.50 as this post is written

S&P500 EPS Forecasts For 2026-2028 As Of May 15, 2026

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of May 15, 2026, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46/share; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; the Year 2018 value is $161.93/share; the Year 2019 value is $162.93/share; the Year 2020 value is $139.72/share; the year 2021 value is $208.12/share; the year 2022 value is $218.09/share; the year 2023 value is $221.36/share; the year 2024 value is $242.73/share; and the year 2025 value is $271.29/share:

Year 2026 estimate:

$336.14/share

Year 2027 estimate:

$387.74/share

Year 2028 estimate:

$435.96/share

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7408.50 as this post is written

Philadelphia Fed – 2nd Quarter 2026 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 2nd Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on May 15, 2026.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:

Real GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2026:  2.2%

full-year 2027:  1.9%

full-year 2028:  2.2%

full-year 2029:  2.3%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2026: 4.4%

for 2027: 4.5%

for 2028: 4.4%

for 2029: 4.4%

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Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 17.9%, 25.1%, 24.5%, 25.7%, and 23.0% for each of the quarters from Q2 2026 through Q2 2027, respectively.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2035) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 2.1% to 6.0% range.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7408.50 as this post is written

Monthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payroll – May 9, 2026 Update

For reference purposes, below are five charts that display growth in payroll employment, as depicted by the Total Nonfarm Payroll measures (FRED data series PAYEMS).

PAYEMS, which is seasonally adjusted, is defined in Financial Reserve Economic Data [FRED] as:

All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number of U.S. workers in the economy that excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed. This measure accounts for approximately 80 percent of the workers who contribute to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

This measure provides useful insights into the current economic situation because it can represent the number of jobs added or lost in an economy. Increases in employment might indicate that businesses are hiring which might also suggest that businesses are growing. Additionally, those who are newly employed have increased their personal incomes, which means (all else constant) their disposable incomes have also increased, thus fostering further economic expansion.

Generally, the U.S. labor force and levels of employment and unemployment are subject to fluctuations due to seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusts the data to offset the seasonal effects to show non-seasonal changes: for example, women’s participation in the labor force; or a general decline in the number of employees, a possible indication of a downturn in the economy. To closely examine seasonal and non-seasonal changes, the BLS releases two monthly statistical measures: the seasonally adjusted All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) and All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYNSA), which is not seasonally adjusted.

The series comes from the ‘Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey).’

The source code is: CES0000000001

The first chart shows the monthly change in Total Nonfarm Payroll from the year 2000 through the current April 2026 report (April 2026 value of 115 (Thousands)):

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 9, 2026; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS

The second chart shows a longer-term chart of the same month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Payroll (reports of February 1939 through the present report of April 2026):

The third chart shows the aggregate number of Total Nonfarm Payroll, from the reports of January 1939 – April 2026 (April 2026 value of 158.736 million):

The fourth chart shows this same measure of aggregate number of Total Nonfarm Payroll as seen above but presented on a LOG scale:

Lastly, the fifth chart shows the Total Nonfarm Payroll number on a “Percent Change from Year Ago” basis from January 1940 – April 2026: (April 2026 value of .2%)

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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7398.93 as this post is written

Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings.

Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings.

While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic trends.

The first chart depicts Average Hourly Earnings Of All Employees: Total Private (FRED series CES0500000003)(current value = $37.41):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 5-8-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees:  Total Private [CES0500000003] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 8, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES0500000003

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This next chart depicts this same measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis.   While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 5-8-26)

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There are slightly different measures available from a longer-term perspective. Pictured below is another measure, the Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees – Total Private (FRED series AHETPI)(current value = $32.23):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 5-8-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees:  Total Private [AHETPI] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics;  accessed May 8, 2026: 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI

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Pictured below is this AHETPI measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis.   While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 5-8-26)

I will continue to actively monitor these trends, especially given the post-2009 dynamics.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7396.78 as this post is written

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Charts As Of May 8, 2026

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”

Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.

For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.

Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 4.3% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 8, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

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Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 8.2% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons  [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 8, 2026:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7385.83 as this post is written

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – May 2026

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.

The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 11.0 weeks):

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 5-8-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 8, 2026:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED

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Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 1.833 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 8, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV

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Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 158.736 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 8, 2026:  https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

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Our unemployment problem is severe.  The underlying dynamics of the current – and especially future – unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome.  These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.

My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” category.  This commentary includes the page titled “U.S. Unemployment Trends,” which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7391.22 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – May 8, 2026 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra long-term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets – will occur. [note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has paramount significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” label]

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through May 7, 2026 with a last price of 7337.11), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7337.11 as this post is written