On Wednesday, April 29, 2026 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled April 2026 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials)
Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference“ (preliminary)(pdf) of April 29, 2026, with the accompanying “FOMC Statement.”
Excerpts from Chair Powell’s opening comments:
Inflation has moved up recently and is elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. Estimates based on the Consumer Price Index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 3.5 percent over the 12 months ending in March, boosted by the significant rise in global oil
prices that has resulted from the conflict in the Middle East. Excluding the volatile food and
energy categories, core PCE prices rose 3.2 percent over the 12 months ending in March. This
relatively high rate largely reflects the effects of tariffs on prices in the goods sector. Near-term
measures of inflation expectations have risen this year, likely because of the substantial rise in oil
prices. Most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation
goal.
Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum
employment and stable prices for the American people. At today’s meeting, the Committee
decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. The
economic outlook remains highly uncertain, and the conflict in the Middle East has added to this
uncertainty. In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation. Beyond that,
the scope and duration of potential effects on the economy remain unclear, as does the future
course of the conflict itself. We will continue to monitor the risks to both sides of our dual
mandate. We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to
our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
Excerpts of Jerome Powell’s responses as indicated to various questions:
NICK TIMIRAOS. Chair Powell, if I could ask about the inflation outlook. In March,
you described the standard practice of looking through energy shocks as conditional on inflation
expectations staying anchored. Since that meeting, there has been very little progress reopening
key energy trade corridors. Can you help us understand how the inflation outlook has changed in
the intermitting period beginning with the prospects for tariff pass-through resolving on the
timeline that you had outlined in March before getting to the energy shock that is now on top?
CHAIR POWELL. So, you know, I would look at it this way. For a long time, we've been
working on the hypothesis really that tariff -- tariffs would lead to a one-time price increase and
that that would go away over time. In other words, that there would be no further change so
measured inflation wouldn't reflect that higher level going up more and more. And it's time for
that to happen. You know, we really do expect that to be happening in the next two quarters. So
we'll be watching very carefully to see that what we've thought all along would happen. That's
the kind of critical part of the forecast. We need to really see that. With energy, it's so hard to say.
I mentioned, you know, in, you know, sort of the textbook, you would look through an oil shock
because they tend to be short lived and they tend to revert. And monetary policy works with long
and variable lags so, you know, you wouldn't necessarily react right away. I think that is all the
more true given that we're several years above two percent inflation, and that we're already
looking through the tariff shock. So, I think we're going to be very cautious about that. It's -- but the -- you know, the question about looking through energy really is not in front of us right now.
We -- it hasn't even peaked yet. And I think we'd want to see the backside of that and progress on
tariffs before we even thought about reducing rates.
NICK TIMIRAOS. So, if I could follow up, the statement today preserves language that
has taken on some meaning as it was socialized when the Committee was actively lowering rates.
Why is that easing bias still ripe given how different the inflation outlook is now versus a
meeting or two ago, and what more would have to happen for it to get evicted?
CHAIR POWELL. So that was -- as you will recall, we had a discussion about that at the
last meeting, and we talked about it in the press conference after the March meeting. We had the
same today. We had quite a vigorous discussion about that very issue and the guidance and is it
still appropriate and that kind of thing. And I would say that the, you know, number of people on
the Committee who either could support that language change changing to a more neutral stance
so that the hike is as likely as a cut, that number has increased over the intermitting period. And
it's easy to see why. I mean, it's a good question. Right? You see inflation has moved up over the
interim a bit, core inflation's 3.2 now, moving albeit just a little bit in the wrong direction, and we
know that there will be -- you know, that there is headline inflation coming out of the Gulf and
we don't know how much that will be, we just -- we're going to need to see. So, it makes all the
sense in the world that people would look at that and we'd have a vigorous discussion about that.
You saw that three people dissented over the language. I think all of those people agreed with the
right decision. So, the majority of the Committee did not want to do that. And I was -- I didn't
think we needed to do it at this meeting. It really was just a question of what's -- why do we need
to do that now? You know, we have so much to learn and there's so much uncertainty about the
path ahead, there doesn't need to be any rush to make that decision now because, you know, what happens in the next 30, 60 days, even by the next meeting, could really change the picture around
that -- around that language. So, you know, it was a -- it's a close -- it's a much closer thing on the
Committee than it was in March. And, you know, that makes all the sense in the world it seems
to me.
also:
CHRISTINE ROMANS. I'm going to ask you about misbehaving inflation then. You
talked about those four big shocks -- supply shocks over the past five years and inflation still
misbehaving. What's your message to American families who feel like inflation has not been
under control for them really since the COVID reopening?
CHAIR POWELL. You know, we're committed to bring inflation back down to two
percent, and sustainably. That's our goal. And we will -- we'll stick at it until that happens. We
keep getting -- these events keep happening which keep driving up costs. And, you know, the
best thing we can do is to use our tools to guide inflation back down to two percent. I think
trying to get there really quickly could be very costly in terms of job loss and things like that. But we try to get there over time in a way that does the least damage possible. And, you know, our
commitment to that is never ending and unshakable.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 7201.54 as this post is written
