The October 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The October 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 11, 2026. The headline is “Why Economists Think Higher Bond Yields Are Here to Stay.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Higher yields are expected to persist. Forecasters see a 10-year yield of 4.96% halfway through 2027 and 4.78% at the end of 2027, up from 4.3% and 4.26% in July projections.

A mix of improving growth, new inflationary pressures and concerns about the U.S. fiscal trajectory have pushed bond yields higher since the start of the summer. Many economists said the cocktail has forced them to re-evaluate their assumptions about investors’ demand for Treasurys, whose yields rise when their prices fall.

 As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 26%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 56%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey [the previously published survey] was 28%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 66 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted October 4 – October 8. Not every economist answered every question.

–

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2026:  2.42%

full-year 2027:  2.14%

full-year 2028:  2.16%

full-year 2029:  2.19%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2026: 4.19%

December 2027: 4.21%

December 2028: 4.21%

December 2029: 4.25%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2026: 5.10%

December 2027: 4.78%

December 2028: 4.58%

December 2029: 4.55%

CPI:

December 2026:  3.48%

December 2027:  2.34%

December 2028:  2.22%

December 2029:  2.21%

Core PCE:

full-year 2026:  3.11%

full-year 2027:  2.48%

full-year 2028:  2.19%

full-year 2029:  2.11%

(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7811.54 as this post is written

Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings.

Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings.

While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic trends.

The first chart depicts Average Hourly Earnings Of All Employees: Total Private (FRED series CES0500000003)(current value = $37.81):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 10-2-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees:  Total Private [CES0500000003] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed October 2, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES0500000003

–

This next chart depicts this same measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis.   While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 10-2-26)

–

There are slightly different measures available from a longer-term perspective. Pictured below is another measure, the Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees – Total Private (FRED series AHETPI)(current value = $32.60):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 10-2-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees:  Total Private [AHETPI] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics;  accessed October 2, 2026: 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI

–

Pictured below is this AHETPI measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis.   While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 10-2-26)

I will continue to actively monitor these trends, especially given the post-2009 dynamics.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7720.50 as this post is written

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Charts As Of October 2, 2026

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”

Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.

For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.

Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 4.2% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed October 2, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

–

Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 7.6% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons  [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed October 2, 2026:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7714.46 as this post is written

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – October 2026

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.

The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 11.5 weeks):

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 10-2-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed October 2, 2026:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED

–

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 1.944 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed October 2, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV

–

Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 159.044 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed October 2, 2026:  https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

–

Our unemployment problem is severe.  The underlying dynamics of the current – and especially future – unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome.  These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.

My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” category.  This commentary includes the page titled “U.S. Unemployment Trends,” which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7746.95 as this post is written

U.S. Dollar Decline – October 1, 2026 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial Dollar decline can’t, in my opinion, be overstated.

The following three charts illustrate various technical analysis aspects of the U.S. Dollar, as depicted by the U.S. Dollar Index.

First, a look at the monthly U.S. Dollar from 1983.  This clearly shows a long-term weakness, with the blue line showing technical support until 2007, and the red line representing a (past) trendline:

(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; annotations by the author)

(click on charts to enlarge images)

–

Next, another chart, this one focused on the daily U.S. Dollar since 2000 on a LOG scale.  The red line represents a (past) trendline.  The gray dotted line is the 200-day M.A. (moving average):

–

Lastly, a chart of the Dollar on a daily LOG scale.  There is possible technical support depicted by the dashed light blue line:

–

I will continue providing updates on this U.S. Dollar situation regularly as it deserves very close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7651.54 as this post is written

Problems Within The U.S. Economic Situation – October 1, 2026

Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators indicate sustained economic growth and financial stability for the foreseeable future.

However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is in many ways incorrect.  There are many exceedingly problematical financial conditions that have existed prior to 2020, and continue to exist.  As well, numerous economic dynamics continue to be exceedingly worrisome and many economic indicators have portrayed facets of weak growth or outright decline currently as well as prior to 2020.

Of paramount importance is the resulting level of risk and the future economic implications.

From an “all things considered” standpoint, I continue to believe the overall level of risk remains at a fantastic level – one that is far greater than that experienced at any time in the history of the United States.

Cumulatively, these highly problematical conditions will lead to future upheaval.  The extent of the resolution of these problematical conditions will determine the ongoing viability of the financial system and economy as well as the resultant quality of living.

As I have previously written in “The U.S. Economic Situation” updates:

My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well.  Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact.  This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7651.54 as this post is written

The CFO Survey Third Quarter 2026 – Notable Excerpts

On September 23, 2026 The CFO Survey was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

Corporate financial leaders expressed general optimism about the economic outlook, according to the third quarter CFO Survey. However, rising optimism among large companies was somewhat offset by declining optimism for small and financially constrained firms.

The survey, a collaboration of Duke University's Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta, was fielded from Aug. 17 to Sept. 4. It reflects the views of 517 financial executives.

The CFO Survey contains an Optimism Index chart, with the blue line showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 60.3, as seen below:

—

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” label)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7707.96 as this post is written

The U.S. Economic Situation – September 23, 2026 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, sustainable long-term economic vitality is to be realized.

There are an array of indications and other “warning signs” – many readily apparent – that current economic activity and financial market performance is accompanied by exceedingly perilous dynamics.

I have written extensively about this peril, including in the following:

“Building Financial Danger” (ongoing updates)

“A Special Note On Our Economic Situation”

“Forewarning Pronounced Economic Weakness”

“Thoughts Concerning The Next Financial Crisis”

“Was A Depression Successfully Avoided?”

“Has the Financial System Strengthened Since the Financial Crisis?”

“The Next Crash And Its Significance”

My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well.  Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact.  This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.

For long-term reference purposes, here is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1900, depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale (updated through September 18, 2026 with a last value of 51,682.64):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7764.64 as this post is written