Updates Of Economic Indicators April 2025

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The April 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 24, 2025:

The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.03:

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 24, 2025: 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of -.01:

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 24, 2025: 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index

The ADS Index as of April 17, 2025, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through April 12, 2025, with last value -.100763:

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):

As per the April 21, 2025 Conference Board press release the LEI was 100.5 in March, the CEI was 114.4 in March, and the LAG was 119.1 in March.

An excerpt from the release:

“The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements: 1) consumer expectations dropped further, 2) stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and 3) new orders in manufacturing softened. That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start. Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, which is somewhat below the economy’s potential. The slower projected growth rate reflects the impact of deepening trade wars, which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.”

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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5415.22 as this post is written

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through March 2025

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.

For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure.

First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2025, updated on April 24, 2025. This value is $315,729 ($ Millions):

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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Second, here is the chart depicting this measure on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, with a last value of 11.9%:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Manufacturers’ New Orders:  Durable Goods [DGORDER]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau; accessed April 24, 2025; 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5375.86 as this post is written

The U.S. Economic Situation – April 23, 2025 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, sustainable long-term economic vitality is to be realized.

There are an array of indications and other “warning signs” – many readily apparent – that current economic activity and financial market performance is accompanied by exceedingly perilous dynamics.

I have written extensively about this peril, including in the following:

“Building Financial Danger” (ongoing updates)

“A Special Note On Our Economic Situation”

“Forewarning Pronounced Economic Weakness”

“Thoughts Concerning The Next Financial Crisis”

“Was A Depression Successfully Avoided?”

“Has the Financial System Strengthened Since the Financial Crisis?”

“The Next Crash And Its Significance”

My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well.  Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact.  This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.

For long-term reference purposes, here is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1900, depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale (updated through April 17, 2025 with a last value of 39,142.23):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5362.49 as this post is written

Money Supply Charts Through March 2025

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.

The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following:

Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.

Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.

Here is the “M1 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on April 22, 2025 depicting data through March 2025, with a value of $18,560.8 Billion:

Here is the “M1 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 3.2%:

Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M1 Money Stock [M1SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 22, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:

Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.

Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on April 22, 2025, depicting data through March 2025, with a value of $21,762.5 Billion:

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 4.1%:

Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 Money Stock [M2SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 22, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5243.02 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of April 11, 2025:

from page 29:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

from page 30:

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5275.74 as this post is written

S&P500 EPS Forecasts For 2024-2027 As Of April 11, 2025

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of April 11, 2025, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46/share; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; the Year 2018 value is $161.93/share; the Year 2019 value is $162.93/share; the Year 2020 value is $139.72/share; the year 2021 value is $208.12/share; the year 2022 value is $218.09/share; and the year 2023 value is $221.36/share:

Year 2024 estimate:

$242.73/share

Year 2025 estimate:

$267.50/share

Year 2026 estimate:

$305.77/share

Year 2027 estimate:

$344.30/share

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5235.94 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2024 – 2026 – April 8, 2025

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of April 8, 2025:

Year 2024 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $233.36/share

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $210.17/share

Year 2025 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $265.27/share

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $246.78/share

Year 2026 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $303.26/share

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $284.13/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5408.39 as this post is written

Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) Q1 2025

On April 15, 2025, the Fannie Mae Q1 2025 Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) results were released.  This survey is done on a quarterly basis.

Various Q1 2025 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey information is available, including the chart seen below:

As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, as depicted by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index, will continually climb.

The detail of the survey is interesting.  Of the survey respondents, two (of the displayed responses) forecasts a cumulative price decrease through 2029.

The Median Cumulative Home Price Appreciation for years 2025-2029 is seen as 4.00%, 7.51%, 11.39%, 16.06%, and 21.15%, respectively.

For a variety of reasons, I continue to believe that these forecasts will prove far too optimistic.

I have written extensively about the residential real estate situation.  For a variety of reasons, it is exceedingly complex.  While many people continue to have an optimistic view regarding future residential real estate prices, in my opinion such a view is unsupported on an “all things considered” basis.  Residential real estate is an exceedingly large asset bubble. As such, from these price levels there exists potential for a price decline of outsized magnitude. 

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5400.27 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 57)

The following is the latest update of 9 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation.

I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last update March 18, 2025):

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST/, April 14, 2025.

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The Federal Deficit (last updated October 18, 2024):

U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYFSD/, April 14, 2025.

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Federal Net Outlays (last updated October 18, 2024):

U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, April 14, 2025.

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State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated March 27, 2025):

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State and local government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes: Income taxes [ASLPITAX], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ASLPITAX/, April 14, 2025.

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Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated April 11, 2025):

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks [TOTLL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTLL/, April 14, 2025.

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Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated April 11, 2025):

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks [TOTBKCR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR/, April 14, 2025.

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Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated April 4, 2025):

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED/, April 14, 2025.

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Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated April 4, 2025):

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART/, April 14, 2025.

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index Three Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated March 24, 2025):

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CFNAIMA3/, April 14, 2025.

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I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5405.97 as this post is written