The July 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The July 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 11, 2024. The headline is “’Economists Say Inflation Would Be Worse Under Trump Than Biden.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Consumer prices have risen 19% since Biden took office in January 2021, fueled by a rush of government spending, some of it enacted under Trump; shortages of goods and labor; and supply-chain disruption in the wake of the pandemic. During Trump’s four years as president, prices increased 7.8%. 

On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that year-over-year inflation as measured by the consumer-price index fell to 3% in June from 3.3% in May. Economists surveyed by the Journal expect it to ease to 2.8% by December and 2.3% by the end of next year. 

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 28%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 55%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey [the previously published survey] was 29%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 68 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted July 5 – July 9. Not every economist answered every question.

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Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2024:  1.66%

full-year 2025:  1.90%

full-year 2026:  2.05%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2024: 4.18%

December 2025: 4.20%

December 2026: 4.11%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2024: 4.12%

December 2025: 3.87%

December 2026: 3.76%

CPI:

December 2024:  2.83%

December 2025:  2.31%

December 2026:  2.21%

Core PCE:

full-year 2024:  2.67%

full-year 2025:  2.17%

full-year 2026:  2.06%

(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5615.31 as this post is written