Thursday, April 28, 2016

Median Household Income Chart

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings.
Doug Short, in his April 28, 2016 post titled “March Real Median Household Income Inches Upward” produced the chart below.  It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as depicted.  As one can see, post-recession real median household income (seen in the blue line since 2009) remains worrisome.
(click on chart to enlarge image)
median household income
As Doug mentions in his aforementioned post:
As the excellent data from Sentier Research makes clear, the mainstream U.S. household was struggling before the Great Recession. At this point, real household incomes are about where they were during the middle of the Great Recession.
Among other items seen in his blog post is a chart depicting each of the two (nominal and real household incomes) data series’ percent change over time since 2000.
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2075.81 as this post is written

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through April 28, 2016

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures.
All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2016, and were last updated as of April 28, 2016.  As one can see, two of the three measures are at an all-time low for the periods depicted:
Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.315:
MZM money velocity
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 28, 2016:
Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 5.848:
M1V_4-28-16 5.848
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 28, 2016:
Velocity of M2 Money Stock, current value = 1.458:
M2 money velocity
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 28, 2016:
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2075.81 as this post is written

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 1st Quarter 2016

For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate at .5%, Worse Than Mainstream Forecasts” post of April 28, 2016, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q1 2016 Advance Estimate (pdf) of April 28, 2016:
GDP-since-1947-with-regression 4-28-16
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2090.98 as this post is written

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the April 21, 2016 update (reflecting data through April 15) is -.862.
Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.
Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).
Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.
The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.
For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:
Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.
The NFCI chart below was last updated on April 27, 2016 incorporating data from January 5,1973 to April 22, 2016, on a weekly basis.  The April 22, 2016 value is -.67:
NFCI_4-27-16 -.67
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 27, 2016:
The ANFCI chart below was last updated on April 27, 2016 incorporating data from January 5,1973 to April 22, 2016, on a weekly basis.  The April 22 value is .16:
ANFCI_4-27-16 .16
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 27, 2016:
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2088.51 as this post is written

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through March 2016

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.
For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure.
First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2016, updated on April 26, 2016. This value is $230,651 ($ Millions):
(click on charts to enlarge images)
Durable Goods New Orders
Second, here is the chart depicting this measure on a “Percentage Change from a Year Ago” basis:
Durable Goods New Orders Percent Change From Year Ago
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Manufacturers’ New Orders:  Durable Goods [DGORDER]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau; accessed April 26, 2016;
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2091.70 as this post is written

Money Supply Charts Through March 2016

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.
The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following:
M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.
Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Here is the “MZM Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on April 22, 2016 depicting data through March 2016, with a value of $13,975.4 Billion:
MZMSL March 2016
Here is the “MZM Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis:
MZMSL percent change from year ago
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 26, 2016:
The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:
M2 includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds (MMMFs). Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on April 21, 2016, depicting data through March 2016, with a value of $12,568.6 Billion:
M2SL March 2016
Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis:
M2SL percent change from year ago
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 26, 2016:
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2087.79 as this post is written

Friday, April 22, 2016

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – April 22, 2016 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):
For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.
However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.
Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of April 22, 2016 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  WLI Up 1.0 From Last Week.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the April 22, 2016 release, indicating data through April 15, 2016.
Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):
ECRI WLI
This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:
Dshort 4-22-16 - ECRI-WLI-YoY .75 percent
This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:
ECRI WLI,Gr.
_________
I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2089.13 as this post is written

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Updates Of Economic Indicators April 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The April 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 21, 2016: (current reading of -.44; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.18):
CFNAI-MA3
As of April 15, 2016 (incorporating data through April 8, 2016) the WLI was at 134.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.5%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of April 15, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 1.0 From Last Week“:
ECRI WLI,Gr.
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through April 16, 2016:
ADS Index
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the April 21, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.4, the CEI was at 113.3, and the LAG was 120.9 in March.
An excerpt from the April 21 release:
With the March gain, the U.S. LEI’s six-month growth rate improved slightly but still points to slow, although not slowing, growth in the coming quarters,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Rebounding stock prices were offset by a decline in housing permits, but nonetheless there were widespread gains among the leading indicators. Financial conditions, as well as expected improvements in manufacturing, should support a modest growth environment in 2016.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of April 17 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Increase in March“:
Conference Board LEI
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2094.36 as this post is written