Wednesday, March 4, 2015

VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – March 4, 2015 Update

For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through yesterday’s (March 3, 2015) close, which had a closing value of 13.86:
Below is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
VIX Weekly since year 2000
Here is the VIX Monthly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-month moving average, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
VIX Monthly chart since year 2000
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2095.25 as this post is written

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – March 3, 2015 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes.
Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price.
The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, WFM, SBUX, CAT) individual stocks, since 2005.  There is a blue vertical line that is very close to the March 6, 2009 low.  As one can see, both the S&P500 performance, as well as many stocks including the five shown, have performed strongly since the March 6, 2009 low:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
S&P500 vs. stocks
This next chart shows, on a monthly LOG basis, the S&P500 since 1980.  I find this chart notable as it provides an interesting long-term perspective on the S&P500′s performance.  The 20, 50, and 200-month moving averages are shown in blue, red, and green lines, respectively:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
S&P500 monthly since 1980
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2108.41 as this post is written

Long-Term DJIA, Transports, S&P500, And Nasdaq Charts

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators.
As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale.
(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com)
The DJIA, from 1900-February 27, 2015:
DJIA from 1900
The Dow Jones Transportation Average, from 1900-February 27, 2015:
Dow Jones Transports
The S&P500, from 1925-February 27, 2015:
S&P500 since 1925
The Nasdaq Composite, from 1978-February 27, 2015:
Nasdaq Composite from 1978
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2106.13 as this post is written

March 3, 2015 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

On March 3, 2015 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Edged Down in February.”
Notable excerpts include:
After scoring +3 in January, the first positive reading in seven years, Gallup's Economic Confidence Index edged down to +1 in February. The reading last month is still the second-highest monthly average since Gallup began tracking confidence on a daily basis in 2008.
also:
Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: Americans' ratings of current economic conditions and their views on whether the economy is getting better or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100, if all Americans believe the economy is excellent or good and getting better; and a theoretical minimum of -100, if all Americans say the economy is poor and getting worse.
In Gallup Daily tracking throughout February, an average 27% of Americans said the economy was "excellent" or "good," while 27% said it was "poor." The resulting "0" current conditions score compares with +1 in January. Meanwhile, the economic outlook score decreased by three points to +2, based on 49% of Americans saying the economy is "getting better" and 47% "getting worse."
Here is an accompanying chart of the Gallup Economic Confidence Index:
Gallup U.S. Economic Confidence Monthly Averages
 
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2108.61 as this post is written

Monday, March 2, 2015

U.S. Dollar Decline – March 2, 2015 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial Dollar decline can’t be overstated, in my opinion.
The following three charts illustrate various technical analysis aspects of the U.S. Dollar, as depicted by the U.S. Dollar Index.
First, a look at the monthly U.S. Dollar from 1983.  This clearly shows a long-term weakness, with the blue line showing technical support until 2007, and the red line representing a (past) trendline:
(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; annotations by the author)
(click on charts to enlarge images)
U.S. Dollar monthly
Next, another chart, this one focused on the daily U.S. Dollar since 2000 on a LOG scale.  The red line represents a (past) trendline.  The gray dotted line is the 200-day M.A. (moving average):
U.S. Dollar daily
Lastly, a chart of the Dollar on a weekly LOG scale.  There are two clearly marked channels, with possible technical support depicted by the dashed light blue line:
U.S. Dollar weekly
I will continue providing updates on this U.S. Dollar situation regularly as it deserves very close monitoring…
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2109.46 as this post is written

Friday, February 27, 2015

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of February 27, 2015

Doug Short had a blog post of February 27, 2015 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment Remains off Its January Peak“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find highly noteworthy.  Of course, until the recent sudden upswing, the continued subdued absolute levels of these two surveys was disconcerting.
Also, I find the “behavior” of these readings to be quite disparate as compared to the other post-recession periods, as shown in the charts between the gray shaded areas (the gray areas denote recessions as defined by the NBER.)
While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings to be very problematical, especially in light of a variety of other highly disconcerting measures highlighted throughout this site.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2110.84 as this post is written

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Money Supply Charts Through January 2015

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.
The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following:
M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.
Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Here is the “MZM Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on February 20, 2015 depicting data through January 2015, with value $12,977.8 Billion:
MZM seasonally adjusted
Here is the “MZM Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis:
MZM seasonally adjusted percent change from year ago
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 26, 2015:
The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:
M2 includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds (MMMFs). Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on February 19, 2015, depicting data through January 2015, with value $11,700.9 Billion:
M2 seasonally adjusted
Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis:
M2 seasonally adjusted percent change from year ago
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 26, 2015:
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2110.96 as this post is written

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through January 2015

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.
For reference, below are charts depicting this measure.
First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December, updated on February 26, 2015.  This value is 236,147 ($ Millions) :
(click on charts to enlarge images)
Durable Goods New Orders
Here is the chart depicting this measure on a “Percentage Change from a Year Ago” basis:
durable goods new orders percent change from year ago
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Manufacturers’ New Orders:  Durable Goods [DGORDER]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau; accessed February 26, 2015;
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2111.24 as this post is written