Friday, November 21, 2014

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 21, 2014 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):
For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.
However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.
The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reiterated the view that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession, seen most recently in these twelve publicly available sources :
Other past notable year 2012 reaffirmations of the September 30, 2011 recession call by ECRI were seen (in chronological order) on March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands”) as well as various interviews and statements the week of May 6, including:
Also, subsequent to May 2012:
__
Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of November 21, 2014 titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Weekly Update.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the November 21 release, indicating data through November 14, 2014.
Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):
ECRI-WLI
This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:
Dshort 11-21-14 - ECRI-WLI-YoY .8 percent
This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:
ECRI WLI,Gr.
_________
I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2063.50 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.
FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.
For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of November 14, 2014:
from page 23:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
S&P500 earnings forecasts 2014 & 2015
from page 24:
S&P500 annual EPS
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2069.13 as this post is written

Thursday, November 20, 2014

S&P500 Earnings Estimates - Years 2014 Through 2016

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)
The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of November 20, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts:
Year 2014 estimate:
$117.96/share
Year 2015 estimate:
$129.91/share
Year 2016 estimate:
$145.12/share
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2050.13 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2014 & 2015 – As Of November 13, 2014

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)
For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of November 13, 2014:
Year 2014 estimates add to the following:
-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $117.51/share
-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A
-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $109.96/share
Year 2015 estimates add to the following:
-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $133.89/share
-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $135.84/share
-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $134.90/share
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2048.72 as this post is written

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 13, 2014 update (reflecting data through November 7) is -1.137.
Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.
Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).
Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.
The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.
For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:
Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.
The NFCI chart below was last updated on November 19, incorporating data from January 5,1973 to November 14, 2014, on a weekly basis.  The November 14, 2014 value is -.88:
(click on chart to enlarge image)
NFCI 11-19-14
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed November 19, 2014:
The ANFCI chart below was last updated on November 19, incorporating data from January 5,1973 to November 14, 2014, on a weekly basis.  The November 14, 2014 value is -.38:
ANFCI 11-19-14
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed November 19, 2014:
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2045.87 as this post is written

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Trends Of U.S. Treasury Yields - November 18, 2014 Update

For references purposes, below are two charts that show the trend in interest rates for various Treasuries, including the 3-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year, and 10-Year.
A chart showing the interest rate trends of the last 20 years:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
20 year chart U.S. Treasury Yields
A chart showing the interest rate trends of the last year:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
U.S. Treasury Yields 1-year
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2042.33 as this post is written

Monday, November 17, 2014

Philadelphia Fed – 4th Quarter 2014 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed Fourth Quarter 2014 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 17, 2014.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.
The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:
Real GDP: (annual average level)
full-year 2014 : 2.2%
full-year 2015:  3.0%
full-year 2016:  2.9%
full-year 2017:  2.7%
Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)
for 2014: 6.2%
for 2015: 5.6%
for 2016: 5.4%
for 2017: 5.2%
-
As for “the chance of a contraction in real GDP” in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 8.1%, 10.3%, 11.4%, 12.6% and 13.5% for each of the quarters from Q4 2014 through Q4 2015, respectively.
As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2023) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 1.0%-2.3% range.
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2046.18 as this post is written

Friday, November 14, 2014

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 14, 2014 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):
For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.
However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.
The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reiterated the view that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession, seen most recently in these twelve publicly available sources :
Other past notable year 2012 reaffirmations of the September 30, 2011 recession call by ECRI were seen (in chronological order) on March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands”) as well as various interviews and statements the week of May 6, including:
Also, subsequent to May 2012:
__
Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of November 14, 2014 titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Weekly Update.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the November 14 release, indicating data through November 7, 2014.
Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):
ECRI WLI
This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:
Dshort 11-14-14 - ECRI-WLI-YoY .7 percent
This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:
ECRI WLI,Gr.
_________
I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2037.52 as this post is written