Friday, April 24, 2015

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through March 2015

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.
For reference, below are charts depicting this measure.
First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March, updated on April 24, 2015. This value is $240,175 ($ Millions):
(click on charts to enlarge images)
Durable Goods New Orders
Here is the chart depicting this measure on a “Percentage Change from a Year Ago” basis:
DGORDER Percent Change From Year Ago
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Manufacturers’ New Orders:  Durable Goods [DGORDER]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau; accessed April 24, 2015;
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2116.42 as this post is written

Median Household Income Chart

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings.
Doug Short, in his April 23, 2015 post titled “Median Household Income Declined In March” produced the chart below.  It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as depicted.  As one can see, post-recession real median household income (seen in the blue line since 2009) is especially worrisome.
(click on chart to enlarge image)
median household income
As Doug mentions in his aforementioned post:
As the excellent data from Sentier Research makes clear, the mainstream U.S. household was struggling before the Great Recession. At this point, real household incomes are in worse shape than they were four years ago when the recession ended.
Among other items seen in his blog post is a chart depicting each of the two (nominal and real household incomes) data series’ percent change over time since 2000.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2118.80 as this post is written

Money Supply Charts Through March 2015

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.
The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following:
M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.
Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Here is the “MZM Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on April 24, 2015 depicting data through March 2015, with value $13,163.0 Billion:
MZMSL March 2015
Here is the “MZM Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis:
MZMSL March 2015 Percent Change From Year Ago
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 24, 2015:
The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:
M2 includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds (MMMFs). Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on April 23, 2015, depicting data through March 2015, with value $11,845.60 Billion:
M2SL March 2015
Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis:
M2SL Percent Change From Year Ago
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 24, 2015:
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2116.27 as this post is written

Thursday, April 23, 2015

The U.S. Economic Situation – April 23, 2015 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, sustainable long-term economic vitality is to be realized.
There are an array of indications and other “warning signs” – many readily apparent – that current economic activity and financial market performance is accompanied by exceedingly perilous dynamics.
I have written extensively about this peril, including in the following:
Building Financial Danger” (ongoing updates)
My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well.  Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact.  This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.
For long-term reference purposes, here is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1900, depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale (updated through April 17, 2015, with a last value of 17826.30:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)
DJIA from 1900
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2112.93 as this post is written

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the April 16, 2015 update (reflecting data through April 10) is -1.154.
Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.
Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).
Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.
The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.
For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:
Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.
The NFCI chart below was last updated on April 22, 2015 incorporating data from January 5,1973 to April 17, 2015, on a weekly basis.  The April 17, 2015 value is -.81:
(click on chart to enlarge image)
NFCI_4-22-15
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 22, 2015:
The ANFCI chart below was last updated on April 22, 2015 incorporating data from January 5,1973 to April 17, 2015, on a weekly basis.  The April 17 value is .42:
ANFCI_4-22-15
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 22, 2015:
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2096.24 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.
FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.
For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of April 17, 2015:
from page 24:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
S&P500 earnings estimates 2015 and 2016
from page 25:
S&P500 EPS 2005-2016
 
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2097.29 as this post is written

S&P500 Earnings - Estimates For Years 2014 Through 2017

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)
The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of April 21, 2015, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2013 value is $109.68/share:
Year 2014 estimate:
$118.78/share
Year 2015 estimate:
$119.30/share
Year 2016 estimate:
$134.62/share
Year 2017 estimate:
$149.02/share
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2097.29 as this post is written

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2015 & 2016 – As Of April 17, 2015

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)
For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of April 17, 2015:
Year 2015 estimates add to the following:
-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $118.02/share
-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A
-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $110.95
Year 2016 estimates add to the following:
-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $134.27/share
-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A
-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $125.36/share
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2100.67 as this post is written