Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the August 21, 2014 update (reflecting data through August 15) is -1.266.
Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.
Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).
Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.
The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.
For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:
Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.
The NFCI chart below was last updated on August 27, incorporating data from January 5,1973 to August 22, 2014, on a weekly basis.  The August 22, 2014 value is -.94:
(click on chart to enlarge image)
NFCI
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 27, 2014:
-
The ANFCI chart below was last updated on August 27, incorporating data from January 5,1973 to August 22, 2014, on a weekly basis.  The August 27, 2014 value is -.48:
(click on chart to enlarge image)
Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 27, 2014:
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2000.03 as this post is written

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through July 2014

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.
For reference, below are charts depicting this measure.
First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through July, last updated on August 26, 2014.  This value is 300,123 ($ Millions) :
(click on charts to enlarge images)
Durable Goods New Orders July 2014
-
Here is the chart depicting this measure on a “Percentage Change from a Year Ago” basis:
DGORDER_8-26-14 300123 Percent Change From Year Ago
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Manufacturers’ New Orders:  Durable Goods [DGORDER]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau; accessed August 26, 2014;
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2003.44 as this post is written

Monday, August 25, 2014

Updates Of Economic Indicators August 2014

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The August 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of August 25, 2014:
cfnai_monthly_MA3 8-25-14
-
As of August 22, 2014 (incorporating data through August 15, 2014) the WLI was at 134.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.8%.
Here is a chart of the ECRI WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s August 22, 2014 post titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Weekly Update” :
Dshort 8-22-14 - ECRI-WLI-growth-since-2000 2.8 percent
-
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through August 16, 2014:
ADS Index
-
As per the August 21, 2014 press release, the LEI was at 103.3 and the CEI was at 109.6 in July.
An excerpt from the August 21 release:
“The LEI improved sharply in July, suggesting that the economy is gaining traction and growth should continue at a strong pace for the remainder of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Although housing has been one of the weakest components this year, the sharp gain in building permits helped boost the LEI in July. Financial markets and labor market conditions have also supported recent gains, but business spending indicators remain soft and their contribution marginal.”
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1998.60 as this post is written

Friday, August 22, 2014

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – August 22, 2014 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):
For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.
However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.
The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reiterated the view that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession, seen most recently in these twelve publicly available sources :
Other past notable year 2012 reaffirmations of the September 30, 2011 recession call by ECRI were seen (in chronological order) on March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands”) as well as various interviews and statements the week of May 6, including:
Also, subsequent to May 2012:
__
Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of August 22, 2014 titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Weekly Update.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the August 22 release, indicating data through August 15, 2014.
Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):
ECRI WLI
-
This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:
Dshort 8-22-14 - ECRI-WLI-YoY - 3.0 percent
-
This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:
ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________
I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1990.24 as this post is written

Current Economic Situation

With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 39 “Building Financial Danger” posts.
My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near the bottom of every blog post since August 15, 2010.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1991.84 as this post is written

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.
FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.
For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of August 15, 2014:
from page 12:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
CY Bottom-Up EPS vs. Top-Down Mean EPS (Trailing 26-Weeks) 
S&P500 earnings estimates trends
-
from page 13:
Calendar Year Bottom-Up EPS Actuals & Estimates
S&P500 annual earnings
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1989.72 as this post is written

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

S&P500 Earnings Estimates For Years 2014-2017

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)
The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of August 20, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts:
Year 2014 estimate:
$119.31/share
Year 2015 estimate:
$133.51/share
Year 2016 estimate:
$148.11/share
Year 2017 estimate:
$138.00/share
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1986.98 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2014 & 2015 – As Of August 14, 2014

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)
For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of August 14, 2014:
Year 2014 estimates add to the following:
-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $119.25/share
-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A
-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $110.24/share
Year 2015 estimates add to the following:
-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $136.54/share
-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $135.84/share
-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $132.30/share
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1982.96 as this post is written