While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends.
Friday, July 30, 2021
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 7, 2021, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2021.”
Thursday, July 29, 2021
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures.
On Wednesday, July 28, 2021 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled July 2021 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials)
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of July 29, 2021 titled “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP Inches Up To 6.5%…,” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) of July 29, 2021:
Tuesday, July 27, 2021
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.
Friday, July 23, 2021
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, sustainable long-term economic vitality is to be realized.
Thursday, July 22, 2021
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 22, 2021 update (reflecting data through July 16, 2021) is -.9812: