The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reaffirmed that view since, most recently in a September 13 release titled “The 2012 Recession: Are We There Yet?” and September 13 Bloomberg video titled “Recession Update.”For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.
Other past notable 2012 reaffirmations of the September 30, 2011 recession call by ECRI were seen (in chronological order) on March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands”) as well as various interviews and statements the week of May 6, including:
- Bloomberg video, May 9: ”Lakshman Achuthan on Renewed U.S. Recession Call: Video”
- ECRI, May 9: ”Revoking Recession: 48th Time’s The Charm?”
- Wall Street Journal video, May 9: “Free Market Economies Have Business Cycles”
- ECRI, May 11: “Rising GDP Doesn’t Rule Out Recession”
- Bloomberg video, July 10: “Recession Here”
- ECRI, September 7: “Recession Evidence Obscured in Real Time”
Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of September 28 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth at Highest Level Since June 2011.” These charts are on a weekly basis through the September 28 release, indicating data through September 21, 2012.
Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):
(click on charts to enlarge images)
This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:
This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:
I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1440.42 as this post is written