For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through April 2021.
Friday, April 30, 2021
Advisor Perspectives had a post of April 30, 2021 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment…“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below:
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of April 12, 2021, titled “Recession Probability Models – April 2021.”
Thursday, April 29, 2021
On Wednesday, April 28, 2021 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled April 2021 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials)
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures.
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 29, 2021 update (reflecting data through April 23, 2021) is -.8052:
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of April 29, 2021 titled “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 6.4%…,” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) of April 29, 2021: