Monday, August 31, 2020

U.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through August 2020

For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through August 2020.

While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability.

A description of this measure, as seen in FRED:

This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero.

The chart, on a monthly basis from January 1990 – August 2020, with reading of .00223, last updated on August 28, 2020:

STLPPMDEF chart

Here is this same deflation probability measure since 2008:

STLPPMDEF from 2008

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Deflation Probability [STLPPMDEF], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 31, 2020: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLPPMDEF

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3508.47 as this post is written

Friday, August 28, 2020

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of August 28, 2020

Advisor Perspectives had a post of August 28, 2020 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment…“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings to be notable, especially in light of a variety of other highly disconcerting measures highlighted throughout this site.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3491.20 as this post is written

Deloitte “CFO Signals” Report Q3 2020 – Notable Aspects

Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 3rd Quarter of 2020.

As seen in page 3 of the report, there were 155 survey respondents.  As stated:

“Each quarter (since 2Q10), CFO Signals has tracked the thinking and actions of CFOs representing many of North America’s largest and most influential companies.

All respondents are CFOs from the US, Canada, and Mexico, and the vast majority are from companies with more than $1 billion in annual revenue. For a summary of this quarter’s response demographics, please see the sidebars and charts on this page. For other information about participation and methodology, please contact nacfosurvey@deloitte.com.”

Here are some of the excerpts that I found notable:

from page 5:

Findings at a glance

Perceptions

How do you regard the North American, European, and Chinese economies? Seven percent of CFOs rate the North American economy as good, but 60% rate it is bad; those expecting better conditions in a year slid from 58% to 43%. Europe was flat at 2% and 32%. China came in at 22% and 47%—above North America for the first time. Page 7.

What is your perception of the capital markets? With continuing low interest rates, 87% of CFOs say debt financing is attractive (up from 63%). With equities climbing recently, equity financing attractiveness rose sharply to 39% (25% to 39% for public company CFOs, and 13% to 38% for private company CFOs). Eighty-four percent now say US equity markets are overvalued (up from 55%), the second-highest level in survey history. Page 8.

Sentiment

Compared to three months ago, how do you feel about your company’s financial prospects? The proportion of CFOs saying they are more optimistic rose sharply, with the optimism index vaulting from last quarter’s survey-low  -54 to +43—a muted finding since the metric is relative to last quarter when the reading was, by far, the lowest in survey history. Nearly 60% of CFOs expressed rising optimism, well above last quarter’s 11%. Page 9.

Expectations

What is your company’s business focus for the next year? Following last quarter’s first-ever shift toward cost reduction over revenue growth, companies reverted to their revenue focus this quarter; a move toward new offerings may signal pandemic-driven market shifts. Page 10.

How will your key operating metrics change over the next 12 months? YOY growth expectations rebounded sharply (but not fully) from last quarter’s historic lows. Revenue growth rose from -8.6% to 1.0%. Earnings growth rose drastically from -18.7% to 3.7%. Capital spending rose sharply from -12.3% to a still-low 0.2%. Domestic hiring rose from -6.0% to 0.2%, and dividend growth rose from -4.8% to 1.1%. Industry differences were stark. Page 11.

Special topic: Current challenges

At roughly what percent of pre-crisis capacity is your company currently operating? Eighty-four percent of CFOs say they are operating at or above 75% capacity—up from the roughly 75% who said so in April and June. Services, Manufacturing, and Retail/Wholesale continue to indicate the most constrained operating levels. Page 12.

How do you expect your 2020 revenue to compare to pre-pandemic expectations? Less than 40% of CFOs say they expect 95% or more of their budgeted revenue, with the average at 74%. Healthcare/Pharma and Energy/ Resources are the most optimistic; Retail/Wholesale is the least. Page 13.

What is your most worrisome risk for your company? Predictably, CFOs’ most prevalent worries are about new waves of COVID-19, more shutdowns, and unstable customer demand. Rising this quarter, however, were concerns that the pandemic might trigger a longer-term recession. Page 14.

Special topic: Looking ahead

When do you expect your company to return to a near-normal operating level? Forty-two percent say they are already at/above their pre-crisis level or will be by the end of 2020 (up from May and June); still, 25% say 1Q22 or later. Page 15.

What is your company’s most important pandemic-driven strategic change? CFOs cited shifts toward more and longer-term remote work. Also common were a higher focus on costs and productivity, acceleration of business digitization, and more remote/touchless customer interactions. Page 16.

Special topic: Cash and liquidity

How does your current cash level compare to its pre-pandemic level? CFOs report average cash levels 25% higher than pre-pandemic. Services and Retail/ Wholesale were the most likely to report cash levels more than 50% higher. Page 17.

What are you using newly raised/accessed cash to fund? More than half of CFOs say their dominant use is to fund cash reserves in the face of uncertainty. Page 18.

Special topic: CFO career

What has been your most important role during the pandemic? CFOs’ most-cited roles center on managing costs, cash, and liquidity. Also common were roles around planning and analysis (forecasting/modeling, decision support, and strategic planning) and leadership (communicating with employees, investors, and the board). Page 19.

from page 11:

Expectations

Growth in key metrics, year-over-year

Revenue growth rose sharply from last quarter’s survey-low -8.6% to 1.0%—still the second-lowest reading in survey history. The US was higher than both Canada and Mexico. Retail/Wholesale bounced back following a substantial reopening of the US economy, but Services remained low and negative (so did Energy/Resources and Financial Services).

Earnings growth rebounded strongly from last quarter’s survey-low -18.7% to 3.7%. The US was highest, with Canada low and Mexico below zero; Healthcare/Pharma, Technology, and Retail/Wholesale were relatively strong; Services and Financial Services were lowest and negative.

Capital spending growth rose from last quarter’s survey-low -12.3% to a still-low 0.2%. The US was relatively strong, but both Mexico and Canada expect contractions. Retail/Wholesale bounced back, and Healthcare/Pharma remained relatively strong; Energy/Resources, Services, and Technology all remained negative.

Domestic hiring growth bounced back from last quarter’s survey-low -6.0% to a still-low 0.2%. Mexico led, with the US barely above zero and Canada negative. Retail/Wholesale bounced back strongly and led; Energy/Resources and Services were lowest and negative.

Dividend growth rose from last quarter’s surveylow -4.8% to 1.1%—still quite low.

1Please see the appendix for industry-specific charts. Note that industry sample sizes vary markedly and that the means are most volatile for the least-represented. Due to a very small sample size, T/M/E was not used as a comparison point this quarter.

Among the various charts and graphics in the report are graphics depicting trends in “Own Company Optimism” on page 9 and “Economic Optimism” found on page 7.

_____

I post various business and economic surveys because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3484.55 as this post is written

Thursday, August 27, 2020

Corporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP

In the last post (“2nd Quarter 2020 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax.

There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis.

One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP.  I feel that this metric is important for a variety of reasons.  As well, the measure is important to a variety of parties, including investors, businesses, and government policy makers.

As one can see from the long-term chart below (updated through the second quarter), (After Tax) Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP is still at levels that can be seen as historically high.  While there are many reasons as to why this is so, from a going-forward standpoint I think it is important to recognize both that such a notable condition exists, as well as contemplate and/or plan for such factors and conditions that would come about if (and in my opinion “when”) a more historically “normal” ratio of Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP occurs.  This topic can be very complex in nature, and depends upon myriad factors.  In my opinion it deserves far greater recognition.

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Corporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 27, 2020

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3487.39 as this post is written

2nd Quarter 2020 Corporate Profits

Today’s (August 27, 2020) GDP release (Q2 2020, Second Estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (preliminary estimate) for the 2nd Quarter.

Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits.  For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) (last updated August 27, 2020, with a value of $1535.309 Billion SAAR):

Corporate Profits After Tax

Here is the Corporate Profits After Tax measure shown on a Percentage Change from a Year Ago perspective:

Corporate Profits After Tax Percent Change From Year Ago

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Corporate Profits After Tax [CP]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis; accessed August 27, 2020; https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3494.53 as this post is written

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the August 20, 2020 update (reflecting data through August 14, 2020) is -.4647.

Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.

Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).

Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:

The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm

Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.

The NFCI chart below was last updated on August 26, 2020 incorporating data from January 8, 1971 through August 21, 2020, on a weekly basis.  The August 21 value is -.53871:

NFCI

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 26, 2020:  
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI

The ANFCI chart below was last updated on August 26, 2020 incorporating data from January 8, 1971 through August 21, 2020, on a weekly basis.  The August 21, 2020 value is -.14766:

ANFCI

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 26, 2020:  
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ANFCI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3470.87 as this post is written

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through July 2020

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.

For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure.

First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through July 2020, updated on August 26, 2020. This value is $230,672 ($ Millions):

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Durable Goods New Orders

Second, here is the chart depicting this measure on a “Percentage Change from a Year Ago” basis, with a last value of -5.0%:

DGORDER Percent Change From Year Ago

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Manufacturers’ New Orders:  Durable Goods [DGORDER]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau; accessed August 26, 2020; 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3443.62 as this post is written

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

House Prices Reference Chart

As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through June) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of August 25, 2020 titled “Case-Shiller : National House Price Index increased 4.3% year-over-year in June“:

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller indexes

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3443.62 as this post is written

Monday, August 24, 2020

Updates Of Economic Indicators August 2020

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The August 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 24, 2020:

The CFNAI, with a current reading of 1.18:

CFNAI

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 24, 2020; 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of 3.59:

CFNAI-MA3

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 24, 2020; 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of August 21, 2020 (incorporating data through August 14, 2020) the WLI was at 137.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.7%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Advisor Perspectives’ ECRI update post of August 21, 2020:

ECRI WLI, Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the August 20, 2020 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July” the LEI was at 104.4, the CEI was at 99.2, and the LAG was 109.2 in July.

An excerpt from the release:

“The US LEI increased for the third consecutive month in July, albeit at a slower pace than the sharp increases in the previous two months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Despite the recent gains in the LEI, which remain fairly broad-based, the initial post-pandemic recovery appears to be losing steam. The LEI suggests that the pace of economic growth will weaken substantially during the final months of 2020.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of August 20, 2020:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 3418.41 as this post is written