For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted:
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1970.07 as this post is written
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through July 30, 2014
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures.
All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2014, and were last updated as of July 30, 2014. As one can see, one of the three measures is at an all-time low for the periods depicted:
Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.383 :
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 30, 2014:
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Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 6.171 :
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 30, 2014:
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Velocity of M2 Money Stock, current value = 1.531 :
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 30, 2014:
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1970.07 as this post is written
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 24, 2014 update (reflecting data through July 18) is -1.330.
Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.
Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).
Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:
Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.
The NFCI chart below was last updated on July 30, incorporating data from January 5,1973 to July 25, 2014, on a weekly basis. The July 25, 2014 value is -.99:
(click on chart to enlarge image)
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 30, 2014:
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The ANFCI chart below was last updated on July 30, incorporating data from January 5,1973 to July 25, 2014, on a weekly basis. The July 25, 2014 value is -.35:
(click on chart to enlarge image)
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 30, 2014:
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1970.07 as this post is written
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Median Household Income Chart
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings.
Doug Short, in his July 28, 2014 post titled “Real Median Household Income Rose .69 Percent in June” produced the chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as depicted. As one can see, post-recession real median household income (seen in the blue line since 2009) is especially worrisome.
(click on chart to enlarge image)
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As Doug mentions in his aforementioned blog post:
As the excellent data from Sentier Research makes clear, the mainstream U.S. household was struggling before the Great Recession. At this point, real household incomes are in worse shape than they were four years ago when the recession ended.
Among other items seen in his blog post is a chart depicting each of the two (nominal and real household incomes) data series’ percent change over time since 2000.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1978.91 as this post is written
Monday, July 28, 2014
The S&P500 Vs. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index – July 28, 2014
Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets.
The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, since 2006:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
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It is notable that the Shanghai Composite led the SPX (S&P500) significantly in late ’08 – early ’09, yet it has been (generally) declining since that time.
I continue to find this divergence between the S&P500 and Shanghai Composite to be notable and disconcerting, on an “all things considered” basis.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1980.25 as this post is written
Friday, July 25, 2014
Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through June 2014
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.
For reference, below are charts depicting this measure.
First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through June, last updated on July 25, 2014. This value is 239,917 ($ Millions) :
(click on charts to enlarge images)
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Here is the chart depicting this measure on a “Percentage Change from a Year Ago” basis:
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau; accessed July 25, 2014;
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1978.18 as this post is written
Thursday, July 24, 2014
Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.
FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.
For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of July 18, 2014:
from page 19:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
CY Bottom-Up EPS vs. Top-Down Mean EPS (Trailing 26-Weeks)
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from page 20:
Calendar Year Bottom-Up EPS Actuals & Estimates
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1989.68 as this post is written
S&P500 Earnings Estimates For Years 2014 Through 2017
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)
The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of July 23, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts:
Year 2014 estimate:
$119.34/share
Year 2015 estimate:
$133.66/share
Year 2016 estimate:
$148.27/share
Year 2017 estimate:
$138.00/share
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1989.28 as this post is written
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 17, 2014 update (reflecting data through July 11) is -1.350.
Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.
Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).
Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:
Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.
The NFCI chart below was last updated on July 23, incorporating data from January 5,1973 to July 18, 2014, on a weekly basis. The July 18, 2014 value is -.99:
(click on chart to enlarge image)
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 23, 2014:
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The ANFCI chart below was last updated on July 23, incorporating data from January 5,1973 to July 18, 2014, on a weekly basis. The July 18, 2014 value is -.39:
(click on chart to enlarge image)
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 23, 2014:
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1988.35 as this post is written
Current Economic Situation
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 38 “Building Financial Danger” posts.
My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near the bottom of every blog post since August 15, 2010.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1988.41 as this post is written
Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2014 & 2015 – As Of July 17, 2014
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)
For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of July 17, 2014:
Year 2014 estimates add to the following:
-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $120.07/share
-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A
-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $109.67/share
Year 2015 estimates add to the following:
-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $136.01/share
-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $136.03/share
-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $131.80/share
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1983.53 as this post is written
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
Long-Term Historical Charts Of The DJIA, Dow Jones Transportation Average, S&P500, And Nasdaq Composite
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators.
As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale.
(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com)
The DJIA, from 1900-July 18, 2014:
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The Dow Jones Transportation Average, from 1900-July 18, 2014:
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The S&P500, from 1925-July 18, 2014:
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The Nasdaq Composite, from 1978-July 18, 2014:
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1984.34 as this post is written
Monday, July 21, 2014
Updates Of Economic Indicators July 2014
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The July 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of July 21, 2014:
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As of July 18, 2014 (incorporating data through July 11, 2014) the WLI was at 135.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at 4.2%.
Here is a chart of the ECRI WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s July 18, 2014 post titled “ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update” :
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Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from July 12, 2012 through June 12, 2014:
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As per the July 18, 2014 press release, the LEI was at 102.2 and the CEI was at 109.2 in June.
An excerpt from the July 18 release:
“The CEI shows the pace of economic activity continued to expand moderately through June,” said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board. “Stronger consumer demand driven by sustained job gains and improving confidence remains the main source of improvement for the U.S. economy. In addition to a stronger housing market, more business investment could also provide an upside to the overall economy.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of July 18 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Fifth Monthly Increase“ :
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1974.20 as this post is written
Friday, July 18, 2014
Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – July 18, 2014 Update
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):
For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.
The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reiterated the view that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession, seen most recently in these twelve sources :
- ECRI, May 9, 2014, “Q&A: Where Are We In Economic Cycle“
- FOX Business video, January 22, 2014, “Secular Stagnation“
- BNN video, January 15, 2014, “Cyclical & Secular Outlook“
- CNBC interview, January 14, 2014, “Cyclical Outlook“
- BNN video, November 14, 2013, “Fed Policy & the Business Cycle“
- Bloomberg video, November 4, 2013, “Major Central Bank Actions in Line with ECRI“
- Bloomberg video, July 30, 2013, “U.S. Recession Began in 2012, ECRI’s Achuthan Says“
- ECRI, July 30, 2013, “Becoming Japan“
- ECRI, May 31, 2013, “What Wealth Effect?“
- ECRI, April 26, 2013, “Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again“
- ECRI, April 7, 2013, “Interview on Jobs & Recession” video
- ECRI, March 8, 2013, Interview Summary (provides links to 3 video interviews)
- ECRI, March 5, 2013, “Recession in the Yo-Yo Years“ (provides a link to a 17-page ECRI report dated March 2013 titled “The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years”)
Other past notable year 2012 reaffirmations of the September 30, 2011 recession call by ECRI were seen (in chronological order) on March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands”) as well as various interviews and statements the week of May 6, including:
- Bloomberg video, May 9, 2012: ”Lakshman Achuthan on Renewed U.S. Recession Call: Video“
- ECRI, May 9, 2012: ”Revoking Recession: 48th Time’s The Charm?”
- Wall Street Journal video, May 9, 2012: “Free Market Economies Have Business Cycles”
- ECRI, May 11, 2012: “Rising GDP Doesn’t Rule Out Recession”
Also, subsequent to May 2012:
- Bloomberg video, July 10, 2012: “Recession Here”
- ECRI, September 7, 2012: “Recession Evidence Obscured in Real Time”
- ECRI, September 13, 2012: “The 2012 Recession: Are We There Yet?”
- Bloomberg video, September 13, 2012: “Recession Update.”
- CNN video, November 29, 2012: “Official Recession Indicators“
- CNN video, November 29, 2012: “ECRI Recession Update“
- Yahoo video, November 29, 2012: “Ignore GDP and the Fiscal Cliff, U.S. Is Already in Recession“
- Bloomberg video, November 29, 2012: “Recession Underway“
- CNBC video, December 7, 2012: “Definitional Recession Indicators“
- ECRI, December 7, 2012: “The Tell-Tale Chart” including this excerpt: “Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012.”
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Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of July 18, 2014 titled “ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update.” These charts are on a weekly basis through the July 18 release, indicating data through July 11, 2014.
Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):
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This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:
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This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:
_________
I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1977.00 as this post is written
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