Advisor Perspectives had a post of January 31, 2023 (“Consumer Confidence Declines in January“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
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While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings and trends to be notable, especially in light of a variety of other highly disconcerting measures highlighted throughout this site.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly measure of the change in the price of labor, defined as compensation per employee hour worked. Closely watched by many economists, the ECI is an indicator of cost pressures within companies that could lead to price inflation for finished goods and services. The index measures changes in the cost of compensation not only for wages and salaries, but also for an extensive list of benefits. As a fixed-weight, or Laspeyres, index, the ECI controls for changes occurring over time in the industrial-occupational composition of employment.
Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in December 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from September 2022. (See tables A, 1, 2, and 3.)
also:
Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 5.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2022 and increased 4.0 percent in December 2021. Wages and salaries increased 5.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2022 and increased 4.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2021. Benefit costs increased 4.9 percent over the year and increased 2.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2021. (See tables A, 4, 8, and 12.)
Below are three charts, updated on January 31, 2023 that depict various aspects of the ECI, which is seasonally adjusted (SA):
The first depicts the ECI, with a value of 155.5:
source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Cost Index: Total compensation: All Civilian [ECIALLCIV], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, accessed January 31, 2023: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ECIALLCIV/
The second chart depicts the ECI on a “Percent Change from Year Ago” basis, with a value of 5.1%:
The third chart depicts the ECI on a “Percent Change” (from last quarter) basis, with a value of 1.0%:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through January 2023.
While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability.
A description of this measure, as seen in FRED:
This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero.
The chart, on a monthly basis from January 1990 – January 2023, with a last reading of .00001, last updated on January 27, 2023:
Here is this same U.S. deflation probability measure since 2008:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Deflation Probability [STLPPMDEF], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed January 27, 2023: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLPPMDEF
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I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of January 12, 2023, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2023.”
While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the results of these models and estimates should be monitored.
Another probability of recession is provided by James Hamilton, and it is titled “GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index.” A description of this index, as seen in FRED:
This index measures the probability that the U.S. economy was in a recession during the indicated quarter. It is based on a mathematical description of the way that recessions differ from expansions. The index corresponds to the probability (measured in percent) that the underlying true economic regime is one of recession based on the available data. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators that may not be released until several years after the event , this index is entirely mechanical, is based solely on currently available GDP data and is reported every quarter. Due to the possibility of data revisions and the challenges in accurately identifying the business cycle phase, the index is calculated for the quarter just preceding the most recently available GDP numbers. Once the index is calculated for that quarter, it is never subsequently revised. The value at every date was inferred using only data that were available one quarter after that date and as those data were reported at the time.
If the value of the index rises above 67% that is a historically reliable indicator that the economy has entered a recession. Once this threshold has been passed, if it falls below 33% that is a reliable indicator that the recession is over.
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed January 26, 2023: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of -.33:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed January 26, 2023: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
The ADS Index as of January 19, 2023, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through January 14, 2023, with last value -.342372:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the January 23, 2023 Conference Board press release the LEI was 110.5 in December, the CEI was 109.6 in December, and the LAG was 117.6 in December.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI fell sharply again in December—continuing to signal recession for the US economy in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. “There was widespread weakness among leading indicators in December, indicating deteriorating conditions for labor markets, manufacturing, housing construction, and financial markets in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI) has not weakened in the same fashion as the LEI because labor market related indicators (employment and personal income) remain robust. Nonetheless, industrial production— also a component of the CEI—fell for the third straight month. Overall economic activity is likely to turn negative in the coming quarters before picking up again in the final quarter of 2023.”
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.
For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure.
First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2022, updated on January 26, 2023. This value is $286,885 ($ Millions):
(click on charts to enlarge images)
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Second, here is the chart depicting this measure on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, with a last value of 11.9%:
Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau; accessed January 26, 2023; http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.
The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following:
Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.
Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.
Here is the “M1 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on January 24, 2023 depicting data through December 2022, with a value of $19,685.8 Billion:
Here is the “M1 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of -3.6%:
Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M1 Money Stock [M1SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed January 24, 2023: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:
Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.
Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on January 24, 2023, depicting data through December 2022, with a value of $21,207.4 Billion:
Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of -1.3%:
Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 Money Stock [M2SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed January 24, 2023: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
