Tuesday, July 22, 2025

Money Supply Charts Through June 2025

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.

The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following:

Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.

Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.

Here is the “M1 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on July 22, 2025 depicting data through June 2025, with a value of $18,803.0 Billion:

M1SL

Here is the “M1 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 4.2%:

M1SL Percent Change From Year Ago

Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M1 Money Stock [M1SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 22, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:

Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.

Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on July 22, 2025, depicting data through June 2025, with a value of $22,020.8 Billion:

M2SL

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 4.5%:

M2SL Percent Change From Year Ago

Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 Money Stock [M2SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 22, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6314.18 as this post is written

Thursday, July 17, 2025

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 17, 2025 update (reflecting data through July 11, 2025) is -.7526:

STLFSI4

source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 17, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI4

Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.

Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).

Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:

The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm

Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.

The NFCI chart below was last updated on July 16, 2025 incorporating data from January 8, 1971 through July 11, 2025 on a weekly basis.  The July 11 value is -.54351:

NFCI

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 17, 2025:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI

The ANFCI chart below was last updated on July 16, 2025 incorporating data from January 8, 1971 through July 11, 2025, on a weekly basis.  The July 11 value is -.50583:

ANFCI

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 17, 2025:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ANFCI

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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6297.36 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of July 11, 2025:

from page 29:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS

from page 30:

S&P500 EPS

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6263.70 as this post is written

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

S&P500 EPS Forecasts For 2025-2027 As Of July 11, 2025

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of July 11, 2025, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46/share; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; the Year 2018 value is $161.93/share; the Year 2019 value is $162.93/share; the Year 2020 value is $139.72/share; the year 2021 value is $208.12/share; the year 2022 value is $218.09/share; the year 2023 value is $221.36/share; and the year 2024 value is $242.73/share:

Year 2025 estimate:

$263.33/share

Year 2026 estimate:

$300.25/share

Year 2027 estimate:

$339.04/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6263.70 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2025 – 2026 – July 15, 2025

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of July 15, 2025:

Year 2025 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $255.67/share

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $239.30/share

Year 2026 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $297.29/share

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $278.43/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6263.70 as this post is written

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Disturbing Charts (Update 58)

The following is the latest update of 9 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation.

I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last update June 18, 2025):

HOUST

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST/, July 14, 2025.

The Federal Deficit (last updated October 18, 2024):

FYFSD

U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYFSD/, July 14, 2025.

Federal Net Outlays (last updated October 18, 2024):

FYONET

U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, July 14, 2025.

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated March 27, 2025):

ASLPITAX Percent Change From Year Ago

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State and local government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes: Income taxes [ASLPITAX], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ASLPITAX/, July 14, 2025.

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated July 11, 2025):

TOTLL Percent Change From Year Ago

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks [TOTLL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTLL/, July 14, 2025.

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated July 11, 2025):

TOTBKCR Percent Change From Year Ago

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks [TOTBKCR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR/, July 14, 2025.

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated July 3, 2025):

UEMPMED

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED/, July 14, 2025.

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated July 3, 2025):

CIVPART

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART/, July 14, 2025.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index Three Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated June 26, 2025):

CFNAIMA3

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CFNAIMA3/, July 14, 2025.

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6281.55 as this post is written

Sunday, July 13, 2025

The July 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The July 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 12, 2025. The headline is “Economists See Lower Recession Risk and Stronger Job Growth : WSJ Survey.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Although economists’ outlook improved slightly from the last survey, they still are relatively downbeat—most likely because of the persistence of trade uncertainty and muted growth to date.

On average, they expect gross domestic product adjusted for inflation to grow 1% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. That is up from an April forecast of 0.8%, but just half of what they expected in January. They see growth rebounding to 1.9% in 2026, little changed from prior surveys.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 33%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 95%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey [the previously published survey] was 45%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted July 3 – July 8. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2025:  1.03%

full-year 2026:  1.87%

full-year 2027:  2.04%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2025: 4.46%

December 2026: 4.44%

December 2027: 4.28%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2025: 4.31%

December 2026: 4.20%

December 2027: 4.15%

CPI:

December 2025:  3.04%

December 2026:  2.58%

December 2027:  2.34%

Core PCE:

full-year 2025:  3.11%

full-year 2026:  2.48%

full-year 2027:  2.21%

(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6259.75 as this post is written

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – July 2025

Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate.

The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at elevated levels.

As seen in the April 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey the consensus (average estimate) among various economists is for .78% GDP in 2025, 1.83% GDP in 2026, and 2.12% GDP in 2027.

Charts Indicating U.S. Economic Weakness

Below is a small sampling of charts that depict weak growth or contraction, and a brief comment for each:

Job Openings (JTSJOL)

Job openings (Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL]), although still at a high level, have recently declined significantly. This “Job Openings” measure had a value of 7,769 (Thousands) through May 2025 as of the July 1, 2025 update, as shown below:

JTSJOL

Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -1.7%:

JTSJOL Percent Change From Year Ago

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 8, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL

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Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private (AWHAETP)

Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private continues a significant downward progression. This “Average Weekly Hours” measure had a value of 34.2 (Hours) through June 2025 as of the July 3, 2025 update:

AWHAETP

Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -.3%:

AWHAETP Percent Change From A Year Ago

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private [AWHAETP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 8, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP

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All Employees, Temporary Help Services (TEMPHELPS)

I have written extensively about many facets of employment and unemployment, as the current and future unemployment issue is of tremendous importance yet is in many ways misunderstood.

One theory regarding employment is that hiring cycles typically begin with an uptake in temporary employment. Conversely, due to various factors a reduction in temporary employees can be an (early) indicator of lessening labor demand.

Shown below is this TEMPHELPS measure with last value of 2,535.9 (Thousands) through June 2025, last updated July 3, 2025:

TEMPHELPS

Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -3.2%:

TEMPHELPS Percent Change From Year Ago

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Temporary Help Services [TEMPHELPS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 8, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEMPHELPS

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Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks (HTRUCKSSA)

Sales of “Heavy Weight Trucks” (HTRUCKSSA) has recently been faltering. Shown below is this measure with last value of 36.270 Thousand through June 2025, last updated July 7, 2025:

HTRUCKSSA

Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -1.4%:

HTRUCKSSA Percent Change From Year Ago

source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks [HTRUCKSSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 8, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HTRUCKSSA

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Other Indicators

As mentioned previously, many other indicators discussed on this site indicate weak economic growth or economic contraction, if not outright (gravely) problematical economic conditions.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6225.52 as this post is written