Friday, September 27, 2024

U.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through September 2024

For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through September 2024.

While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability.

A description of this measure, as seen in FRED:

This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero.

The chart, on a monthly basis from January 1990 – September 2024, with a last reading of .00099, last updated on September 27, 2024:

STLPPMDEF

Here is this same U.S. deflation probability measure since 2008:

STLPPMDEF

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Deflation Probability [STLPPMDEF], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 27, 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLPPMDEF

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I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5739.90 as this post is written

Thursday, September 26, 2024

Money Supply Charts Through August 2024

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.

The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following:

Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.

Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.

Here is the “M1 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on September 24, 2024 depicting data through August 2024, with a value of $18,117.5 Billion:

M1SL

Here is the “M1 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of -.8%:

M1SL -.8 Percent Change From Year Ago

Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M1 Money Stock [M1SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 24, 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:

Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.

Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on September 24, 2024, depicting data through August 2024, with a value of $21,174.9 Billion:

M2SL

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 2.0%:

M2SL 2.0 Percent Change From Year Ago

Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 Money Stock [M2SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 26, 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5745.37 as this post is written

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through August 2024

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.

For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure.

First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through August 2024, updated on September 26, 2024. This value is $289,720 ($ Millions):

(click on charts to enlarge images)

DGORDER

Second, here is the chart depicting this measure on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, with a last value of 1.5%:

DGORDER Percent Change From Year Ago

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Manufacturers’ New Orders:  Durable Goods [DGORDER]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau; accessed September 26, 2024; 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGORDER

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5743.07 as this post is written

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

The CFO Survey Third Quarter 2024 – Notable Excerpts

On September 25, 2024 The CFO Survey was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

CFOs remain largely optimistic about their economic trajectory as they plan for the last quarter of 2024, according to The CFO Survey, a collaboration of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta.

Despite increased concerns around the health of the overall economy and some uncertainty related to the upcoming election, respondents said they still expect employment and revenue growth in the third quarter. In the survey that closed on Sept. 6, about 450 financial executives reported little change in optimism about the economy or about their own firm prospects.

“In spite of uncertainty in the economy, firms still expect a soft landing,” said Sonya Ravindranath Waddell, vice president and economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. “Financial executives expect to see growth in their employment and revenues through the year as firms continue to invest in the infrastructure that they need not just to continue operations, but to increase capacity and offer new products. In addition, expectations for price growth continue to come down into more normal territory.”

The CFO Survey contains an Optimism Index chart, with the blue line showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 60.6, as seen below:

The CFO Survey:  Optimism Indexes

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” label)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5723.40 as this post is written

Monday, September 23, 2024

Updates Of Economic Indicators September 2024

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The September 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 23, 2024:

The CFNAI, with a current reading of .12:

CFNAI .12

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 23, 2024: 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of -.17:

CFNAIMA3

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed September 23, 2024: 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index

The ADS Index as of September 19, 2024, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through September 14, 2024, with last value .214467:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):

As per the September 19, 2024 Conference Board press release the LEI was 100.2 in August, the CEI was 112.7 in August, and the LAG was 119.5 in August.

An excerpt from the release:

“In August, the US LEI remained on a downward trajectory and posted its sixth consecutive monthly decline,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The erosion continued to be driven by new orders, which recorded its lowest value since May 2023. A negative interest rate spread, persistently gloomy consumer expectations of future business conditions, and lower stock prices after the early-August financial market tumult also weighed on the Index. Overall, the LEI continued to signal headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to lose momentum in the second half of this year as higher prices, elevated interest rates, and mounting debt erode domestic demand. However, in the Fed’s September 2024 Summary of Economic Projections, policymakers suggested 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are likely by the end of this year, which should lower borrowing costs and support stronger economic activity in 2025.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) update of September 19, 2024:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5711.92 as this post is written

Sunday, September 22, 2024

The U.S. Economic Situation – September 23, 2024 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, sustainable long-term economic vitality is to be realized.

There are an array of indications and other “warning signs” – many readily apparent – that current economic activity and financial market performance is accompanied by exceedingly perilous dynamics.
I have written extensively about this peril, including in the following:
Building Financial Danger” (ongoing updates)

My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well.  Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact.  This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.

For long-term reference purposes, here is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1900, depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale (updated through September 20, 2024 with a last value of 42,063.36):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

DJIA since 1900

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5702.55 as this post is written

Thursday, September 19, 2024

CEO Confidence Surveys 3Q 2024 – Notable Excerpts

On September 18, 2024, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2024.   Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Q3 Economic Index Ticks Down as CEOs Temper Expectations“:

Business Roundtable today released its Q3 2024 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months.

The overall Index dipped 5 points from last quarter to 79 and is below its historic average of 83 for the first time in 2024. The decrease is the result of a modest reduction in CEO plans for employment and an easing in expectations for sales. Plans for capital investment have marginally increased from last quarter.

also:

In their fourth estimate of 2024 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.3% growth for the year, remaining the same as in the second quarter.

On August 8, 2024, The Conference Board released the Q3 2024 Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 52, down from the previous reading of 54. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this Press Release include:

“CEOs remained cautiously optimistic about the future but their views about the current economic situation weakened in Q3,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Chair Emeritus of The Conference Board. “Negative views about current economic conditions outweighed positive views of the economy, with more CEOs saying that conditions have worsened compared to six months ago than saying they improved. Their views about current conditions in their own industries also deteriorated. CEOs’ views about the economy going forward were little changed, but still positive on net. The balance of opinions on future conditions in own industries was also stable and moderately positive. Regarding top risks to their own industries, CEOs continue to rank cyber risks first, followed by geopolitical instability, and legal and regulatory uncertainty.”

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Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5723.11 as this post is written

Jerome Powell’s September 18, 2024 Press Conference – Notable Aspects

On Wednesday, September 18, 2024 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled September 2024 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials)

Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript.  These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference“ (preliminary)(pdf) of September 18, 2024, with the accompanying “FOMC Statement” and “Summary of Economic Projections” (pdf) dated September 18, 2024.

Excerpts from Chair Powell’s opening comments:

As inflation has declined and the labor market has cooled, the upside risks to inflation have diminished and the downside risks to employment have increased.  We now see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate. 

In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, at today’s meeting the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, to 4-3/4 percent to 5 percent.  This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving toward a more neutral stance.  We are not on any preset course.  We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.     

We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation.  At the same time, reducing restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.  In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.  

Excerpts of Jerome Powell’s responses as indicated to various questions:

JEANNA SMIALEK.  Hi Chair Powell, Jeanna Smialek, New York Times. Thanks for taking our questions. You and your colleagues in your economic projections today see the unemployment rate climbing to 4.4 percent and staying there. Obviously, historically when the unemployment rate climbs that much over a relatively short period of time, it doesn’t typically just stop, it continues increasing. And so I wonder if you can walk us through why you see the labor market stabilizing, sort of what’s the mechanism there? And what do you see as the risks?

CHAIR POWELL.  So, again, the labor market is actually in solid condition. And our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there. You can say that about the whole economy. The U.S. economy is in good shape. It’s growing at a solid pace, inflation is coming down, the labor market is in a strong pace, we want to keep it there. That’s what we’re doing.

also:

COLBY SMITH.  Thank you, Colby Smith with the Financial Times. Just following up on Jeanna’s question on rising unemployment. Is it your view that this is just a function of a normalizing labor market amid improved supply, or is there anything to suggest that something more concerning perhaps is taking place here, given that other metrics of labor demand have softened too? And I guess, in direct follow up of Jeanna’s, do you not, why should we not expect a further deterioration in labor market conditions if policy is still restricted? 

CHAIR POWELL.  So I think what we’re seeing is clearly labor market conditions have cooled off by any measure, as I talked about in Jackson Hole, and but they’re still at a level, the level of those conditions is actually pretty close to what I would call maximum employment. So you’re close to mandate, maybe at mandate, on that. So, what’s driving it? Clearly, clearly payroll job creation has moved down over the last few months, and this bears watching. Meant by many other measures, the labor market has returned to or below 2019 levels, which was a very good strong labor market, but this is more sort of 2018, ’17. So, the labor market bears close watching and we’ll be giving it that. But ultimately, we think, we believe, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy that we can continue to see the economy growing and that will support the labor market. In the meantime, if you look at the growth in economic activity data; retail sales data that we just got, second quarter GDP, all of this indicates an economy that is still growing at a solid pace. So that should also support the labor market over time. So, but again, we’re– it bears watching and we’re watching. 

COLBY SMITH.  And just on the point about starting to see rising layoffs, if that were to happen, wouldn’t the Committee already be too late in terms of avoiding a recession? 

CHAIR POWELL.  So we’re, that’s– our plan of course has been to begin to recalibrate and as you know, we’re not seeing rising claims, we’re not seeing rising layoffs, we’re not seeing that and we’re not hearing that from companies that that’s something that’s getting ready to happen. So we’re not waiting for that, because there is– there is thinking that the time to support the labor market is when it’s strong, and not when we begin to see the layoffs. There’s some lore on that. So that’s the situation we’re in. We have, in fact, begun the cutting cycle now and we’ll be watching, and that’ll be one of the factors that we consider. Of course, we’re going to look at the totality of the data as we make these decisions meeting by meeting. 

also:

EDWARD LAWRENCE. Thanks Chair Powell, Edward Lawrence of FOX Business. So we’ve heard some speculation that you may be going with the federal funds rate to 3 and 1/2, maybe under 4 percent, as basically an entire generation that has experienced zero or near zero federal funds rate, and some think we’re heading in that direction again, what’s the likelihood that cheap money is now the norm? 

CHAIR POWELL. So this is a question, and you mean after we get through all of this? It’s just, great question that we just, we can only speculate about. Intuitively most, many, many people anyway, would say we’re probably not going back to that era where there were trillions of dollars of sovereign bonds trading at negative rates, long-term bonds trading at negative rates. And it looked like the neutral rate was, might even be negative, so and it was, people were issuing debt at negative rates. It seems that’s so far away now, my own sense is that we’re not going back to that. But honestly, we’re going to find out. But it feels, it feels to me, and that the neutral rate is probably significantly higher than it was back then. How high is it? I don’t, I just don’t think we know. It’s, again, we only know it by its works. 

also:

JO LING KENT. Thank you, Chair Powell, I’m Jo Ling Kent with CBS News. My first question is; very simply, what message are you trying to send American consumers, the American people, with this unusually large rate cut? 

CHAIR POWELL. I would just say that the U.S. economy is in a good place, and our decision today is designed to keep it there. More specifically, the economy is growing at a solid pace, inflation is coming down closer to our 2 percent objective over time, and the labor market is still in solid shape, so our intention is really to maintain the strength that we currently see in the U.S. economy. And we’ll do that by returning rates from their high level, which has really been the purpose of which has been to get inflation under control. We’re going to move those down over time to a more normal level over time. 

JO LING KENT. Just have a follow-up to that, listening to you talk about inflation moving meaningfully down to 2 percent, is the Federal Reserve effectively declaring a decisive victory over inflation and rising prices? 

CHAIR POWELL. No. We’re not. So, inflation, what we say is we want inflation, the goal is to have inflation move down to 2 percent on a sustainable basis. And we’re not really, we’re close, but we’re not really at 2 percent and I think we’re going to want to see it be around 2 percent and close to 2 percent for some time, but we’re certainly not doing, we’re not saying mission accomplished or anything like that. But I have to say though, we’re encouraged by the progress that we have made. 

also:

JENNIFER SCHONBERGER. Thank you Chair Powell, Jennifer Schonberger with Yahoo Finance. You said earlier that the decision today reflects with appropriate recalibration strength in labor market that could be maintained in the context of moderate growth even though the policy statement says you view the risks to inflation and job growth as roughly balanced. Given what you’ve said though today, I’m curious, are you more worried about the job market and growth than inflation? Are they not roughly balanced? 

CHAIR POWELL. No, I think, I think and we think they are now roughly balanced. So if you go back for a long time, the risks were on inflation, we had a historically tight labor market, historically tight. There was a severe labor shortage. So very hot labor market and we had inflation way above target. So, that said to us, concentrate on inflation, concentrate on inflation. And we did for a while and we kept at that, that the stance that we put in place 14 months ago was a stance that was focused on bringing down inflation. Part of bringing down inflation though is cooling off the economy and a little bit cooling off the labor market. You now have a cooler labor market, in part because of our activity. So, what that tells you is it’s time to change our stance. So we did that. The sense of the change in the stance is that we’re recalibrating our policy over time to a stance that will be more neutral. And today was, I think we made a good strong start on that. I think it was the right decision, and it think it should send a signal that we, that we’re committed to coming up with a good outcome here. 

JENNIFER SCHONBERGER. Is the economy more vulnerable to a shock now that could tip it into recession? 

CHAIR POWELL. I don’t think so. I don’t, there’s– as I look, well, let me look at it this way, I don’t see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession, sorry, of a downturn is elevated. Okay? I don’t see that. You see growth at a solid rate, you see inflation coming down, and you see a labor market that’s still at very solid levels. So, I don’t really see that, no. Thank you. Thank you.

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_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 5718.66 as this post is written