The July 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 12, 2025. The headline is “Economists See Lower Recession Risk and Stronger Job Growth : WSJ Survey.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
An excerpt:
Although economists’ outlook improved slightly from the last survey, they still are relatively downbeat—most likely because of the persistence of trade uncertainty and muted growth to date.
On average, they expect gross domestic product adjusted for inflation to grow 1% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. That is up from an April forecast of 0.8%, but just half of what they expected in January. They see growth rebounding to 1.9% in 2026, little changed from prior surveys.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 33%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 95%. For reference, the average response in April’s survey [the previously published survey] was 45%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted July 3 – July 8. Not every economist answered every question.
–
Economic Forecasts
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2025: 1.03%
full-year 2026: 1.87%
full-year 2027: 2.04%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2025: 4.46%
December 2026: 4.44%
December 2027: 4.28%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2025: 4.31%
December 2026: 4.20%
December 2027: 4.15%
CPI:
December 2025: 3.04%
December 2026: 2.58%
December 2027: 2.34%
Core PCE:
full-year 2025: 3.11%
full-year 2026: 2.48%
full-year 2027: 2.21%
(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 6259.75 as this post is written