Monday, June 14, 2010

The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

I found The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was interesting on a couple of fronts.

First, as stated in the article, "The economists in the survey put the odds of a double-dip recession at 19%."

Second, as seen in the detail of this survey, the survey now includes more forecast information for December 2011. The current average forecasts for December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2011 among economists polled include the following:

Ten-Year Treasury Yield:
for 12/31/2010: 3.87%
for 12/31/2011: 4.58%

for 12/31/2010: 1.4%
for 12/31/2011: 2.0%

Unemployment Rate:
for 12/31/2010: 9.4%
for 12/31/2011: 8.6%

for 12/31/2010: $76.82
for 12/31/2011: $80.87

full-year 2010 : 3.2%
full-year 2011 : 3.1%

Of note, with the exception of the GDP and Unemployment Rates , the above categories did see significant change in average expectations since last month's survey.

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

back to home

SPX at 1097.32 as this post is written

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