Tuesday, December 14, 2010

The December 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published December 13, 2010.

I found a couple of excerpts, seen below, to be especially notable:

"The economists now see stronger expansion in the first half of 2011, with growth picking up speed as the year progresses. For the year, they expect GDP will rise 3%. Meanwhile, they have reduced the odds of a double-dip recession to 15%, the lowest average forecast of the year, from 22% in September survey."

"Also adding fuel to the recovery is the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program, though the economists said the effect may not be large. A Boston Fed study estimates that through 2012 the bond purchases will result in 700,000 additional jobs. Forty-two of 52 respondents called that estimate too optimistic."

I also found a variety of topics seen in the Q&A (spreadsheet tab) to be interesting.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

full-year 2010 : 2.7%
full-year 2011 : 3.0%

Unemployment Rate:
for 12/1/2010: 9.7%
for 12/1/2011: 9.0%

10-Year Treasury Yield:
for 12/31/2010: 2.98%
for 12/31/2011: 3.71%

for 12/1/2010: 1.2%
for 12/1/2011: 1.8%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2010: $86.00
for 12/31/2011: $88.26

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here
SPX at 1240.46 as this post is written

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