Updates On Economic Indicators January 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 27, 2011:



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The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:



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The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the January 24 Release, titled "Economic index forecasts stronger growth"  :

"The January update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, gaining momentum this year. The index forecasts a growth rate of 3.7% in March and April, up from 2.1% in September. Improved consumer and business confidence and the new tax legislation are expected to help fuel growth. But continued high unemployment, a still-weak housing sector and tight credit conditions will keep growth below 4% this year."

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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of 1/14/11 the WLI was at 128.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at 4.1%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:



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The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of January 3 was at 46.1, as seen below:



From the January 3 Press Release, "Driven by a wide range of upbeat grassroots economic news, the Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) jumped 2.2 points to 46.1 in December, breaking out of its previous range and indicating the economy could be picking up momentum at the start of 2011."

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 1-22-09 to 1-22-11:



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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the January 20 release, the LEI was at 112.4 and the CEI was at 101.9 in December.

An excerpt from the January 20, 2011 Press Release:

“Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board:  'While the LEI points to an economic expansion that is gaining further traction, its components still suggest the expansion path may be uneven.  December's gain was led by housing permits, the interest rate spread, initial claims for unemployment insurance and consumer expectations.  The large increases in December and November show that, after a brief pause in the second quarter of 2010, the LEI is resuming the upward trend that began in March 2009.'"
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here
SPX at 1299.54 as this post is written