Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Updates On Economic Indicators May 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The May Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of May 23, 2011:


The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:


The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the March 23 Press Release, titled “Economic index forecasts stronger growth” :

“The March update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 3.7% to 3.8% during the summer months. Gains in manufacturing, capital spending and exports are fueling the growth. Consumer spending and employment are expected to continue improving, though at a moderate pace.”


The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 5/13/11 the WLI was at 128.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at 5.3%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:


The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of May 2 was at 46.6, as seen below:


The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 5-14-09 to 5-14-11:


The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the May 19 release, the LEI was at 114.0 and the CEI was at 102.8 in April.

An excerpt from the May 19 Press Release:
Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. LEI has been rising since March 2009, with only a brief one-month interruption in June 2010, and now, in April 2011. The U.S. CEI, a monthly measure of current economic conditions, continued to increase, supported by improving employment figures. Overall, the composite indexes still point to strengthening business conditions in the near term, although the path may be uneven.”

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1316.28 as this post is written

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