Tuesday, April 12, 2016

April 2016 IMF Report – Probabilities Of Recession And Deflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the April 2016 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf)  The subtitle is “World Economic Outlook:  Too Slow for Too Long.”
One area of the report is Figure 1.18 on page 28.  While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability of Deflation – I do find them to be notable, especially as one can compare these estimates across various global economies.
As one can see, the U.S. is estimated to have a roughly 22% probability of recession and roughly a 10% probability of deflation for the periods indicated.
I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2061.72 this post is written

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