While I continue to have the above-stated reservations regarding the “yield curve” as an indicator, I do believe that it should be monitored.
As an indication of the yield curve (i.e. a yield curve proxy), below is a weekly chart from January 1, 1990 through November 17, 2017. The top two plots show the 10-Year Treasury and 2-Year Treasury yields. The third plot shows the (yield) spread between the 10-Year Treasury and 2-Year Treasury, with the November 17, 2017 closing value of .62%. The bottom plot shows the S&P500:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
Domestic Auto Production
Another notable measure is that of “Domestic Auto Production,” defined in FRED as:
Domestic auto production is defined as all autos assembled in the U.S.
Here is “Domestic Auto Production,” depicted below on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, through September with last value of -34.2 Percent, last updated October 30, 2017:
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Domestic Auto Production [DAUPSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed November 15, 2017:
Current inflation levels and the possibility of deflation is a vastly complex topic, and as such isn’t suitably discussed in a brief manner. I have discussed the issue of deflation extensively as I continue to believe that prolonged and deep U.S. deflationary conditions are on the horizon, and that such deflationary conditions will cause, as well as accompany, inordinate economic hardship. [note: to clarify, for purposes of this discussion, when I mention “deflation” I am referring to the CPI going below zero. Also, I have been using the term “deflationary pressures” as a term to describe deflationary manifestations within an environment that is still overall inflationary but heading towards deflation.]