The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The May 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 24, 2021:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of .24:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, May 24, 2021;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of .07:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, May 24, 2021;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
–
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of May 21, 2021 (incorporating data through May 14, 2021) the WLI was at 159.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at 23.8%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Advisor Perspectives’ ECRI update post of May 21, 2021:
–
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index, from 5-15-2020 through 5-15-21:
–
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the May 20, 2021 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in April” the LEI was at 113.3, the CEI was at 104.1, and the LAG was 104.7 in April.
An excerpt from the release:
“With April’s large monthly gain to start the second quarter, the U.S. LEI has now recovered fully from its COVID-19 contraction—surpassing the index’s previous peak, reached at the very onset of the global pandemic in January 2020,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While employment and production have not recovered to their pre-pandemic levels yet, the U.S. LEI suggests the economy’s upward trend should continue and growth may even accelerate in the near term. The Conference Board now forecasts real GDP could grow around 8 to 9 percent (annualized) in the second quarter, with year-over-year economic growth reaching 6.4 percent for 2021.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of May 20, 2021:
_________
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4196.21 as this post is written
No comments:
Post a Comment