The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The July 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 22, 2021:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of .09:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 22, 2021;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of .06:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 22, 2021;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of July 16, 2021 (incorporating data through July 9, 2021) the WLI was at 157.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at 14.1%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Advisor Perspectives’ ECRI update post of July 16, 2021:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index, from 7-17-2020 through 7-17-21:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the July 22, 2021 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in June” the LEI was at 115.1 in June, the CEI was at 105.5 in June, and the LAG was 105.8 in May.
An excerpt from the release:
“June’s gain in the U.S. LEI was broad-based and, despite negative contributions from housing permits and average workweek, suggests that strong economic growth will continue in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While month-over-month growth slowed somewhat in June, the LEI’s overall upward trend—which started with the end of the pandemic-induced recession in April 2020—accelerated further in Q2. The Conference Board still forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth of 6.6 percent for 2021 and a healthy 3.8 percent for 2022.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of July 22, 2021:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4365.00 as this post is written
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