The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The September 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 23, 2021:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of .29:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, September 23, 2021;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of .43:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, September 23, 2021;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of September 17, 2021 (incorporating data through September 10, 2021) the WLI was at 153.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at 3.6%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Advisor Perspectives’ ECRI update post of September 17, 2021:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of September 16, 2021, reflecting data from September 11, 2020 through September 11, 2021, with last value .128961:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the September 23, 2021 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in August” the LEI was at 117.1 in August, the CEI was at 105.9 in August, and the LAG was at 106.3 in August.
An excerpt from the release:
“The U.S. LEI rose sharply in August and remains on a rapidly rising trajectory,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While the Delta variant—alongside rising inflation fears—could create headwinds for labor markets and the consumer spending outlook in the near term, the trend in the LEI is consistent with robust economic growth in the reminder of the year. Real GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach nearly 6.0 percent year-over-year, before easing to a still-robust 4.0 percent for 2022.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of September 23, 2021:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4452.88 as this post is written
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