Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2021

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 25, 2021:

The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.13:

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 25, 2021; 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of .25:

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 25, 2021; 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of October 22, 2021 (incorporating data through October 15, 2021) the WLI was at 154.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at 3.6%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Advisor Perspectives’ ECRI update post of October 22, 2021:

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index

The ADS Index as of October 21, 2021, reflecting data from October 16, 2020 through October 16, 2021, with last value -.507652:

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):

As per the October 21, 2021 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in September” the LEI was at 117.5 in September, the CEI was at 105.8 in September, and the LAG was at 106.5 in September.

An excerpt from the release:

“The U.S. LEI rose again in September, though at a slower rate, suggesting the economy remains on a more moderate growth trajectory compared to the first half of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The Delta variant, rising inflation fears, and supply chain disruptions are all creating headwinds for the US economy. Despite the LEI’s slower growth in recent months, the strengths among the components remain widespread. Indeed, The Conference Board continues to forecast strong growth ahead: 5.7 percent year-over-year for 2021 and 3.8 percent for 2022.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of October 21, 2021:

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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 4568.44 as this post is written