On Wednesday, July 29, 2026 FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh gave the scheduled July 2026 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials)
Below are Kevin Warsh’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of Chair Warsh’s Press Conference“ (preliminary)(pdf) of July 29, 2026, with the accompanying “FOMC Statement” dated July 29, 2026.
Excerpts from Chair Warsh’s opening comments:
Today, as you know, our Committee decided to vote by a 9 to 3 vote to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. The Committee is continuing its policy of making ample reserves in the banking system. The economy is showing impressive resilience. Even with recent shocks, the trends are positive and reveal solid growth. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. The Committee remains resolute. You’ve heard this before, but we will deliver price stability.
Excerpts of Kevin Warsh’s responses as indicated to various questions:
NEIL IRWIN. Hi, Chairman Warsh, thanks. Neil Irwin with Axios, thank you for taking our questions. So the Fed funds rate is now about 75 basis points below the two-year yield, suggests markets think you’ll have to tighten eventually, about 100 basis points below most Taylor Rule estimates. You’re hitting your employment mandate, inflation stays high. Why should rates not be higher today?
CHAIRMAN WARSH. There’s a lot in there, Neil. So, rates are higher today than they were 42 days ago. Markets have made decisions because we stepped back in part from trying to influence those. Market judgments have moved up on what nominal rates are, across the Treasury curve. That doesn’t mean we take them as — by dictation, but we’re observing them. So I think it’s a mischaracterization to say that markets haven’t reacted because we didn’t move today. Markets are reacting in real time. In the period ahead, we’ve got important decisions to make about the policy rate. Markets in the intervening period, I think, have quite a bit of decisions to make. I’ll see if I can put it this way, monetary policy matters not just by what we say, or even what we do, monetary policy matters by how it affects the real economy. And these prices that we see in financial markets is one of the many ways in which it affects the real economy. We’ll be continuing to watch that market information, see how it responds to incoming events, and that can help inform our decision making when we meet in seven or eight weeks.
NEIL IRWIN. How would you characterize, in the family fight the last couple days, of you and the other eight members who wanted to hold, was that a strong conviction, or was that a hair trigger close call on holding versus tightening?
CHAIRMAN WARSH. Well, I think, you know, the vote was 9-3. The broader discussion to my ear over the course of the last days showed a lot of agreement on the hard questions. The four questions I raised at the outset about what’s really happening in the economy with the shocks and absent the shocks. What are our tools and our capabilities? What’s the effect on prices on output? I heard a lot of commonality on the questions. Were there different leans on the answers? You bet there was. So, could people come to different conclusions? Absolutely. But my own judgment is this is a period of watchful thinking, not watchful waiting. And I think the score on that vote was unanimous.
also:
MICHAEL MCKEE. Michael McKee from Bloomberg Radio and Television. I’m struggling a little bit with some of what you’ve said today, and maybe you can help clarify this. You’ve said over and over again that your job is to bring down prices, to get prices stable, to hit your target, and that you will hit your target. The market says you’re not there yet, because they’ve raised rates. But all you’ve talked about today is talking about it, and it’s not like members of the Committee weren’t there before you talking about it. So I guess what the American people might be asking is, what are you waiting for?
CHAIRMAN WARSH. Yeah. So, believe it or not, this press conference is not all I’ve done today. We have spent an inordinate amount of time in the last two — two days, two weeks, looking at our monetary policy strategy. Evaluating our tools. Thinking hard about the sources of data that we have at our disposal, and we wish we had. We’ve also thought hard about the period ahead. What among these questions will be answered with more clarity, certainly not certainty. So, the decision we made today, the discussion we had in that room, was the farthest thing from inertia I can imagine. As a point estimate at this very moment, in a choice between two alternatives, you heard the results of it, but I would tell you that this discussion was far more robust and our thinking about how best to achieve that target is advanced, and over the coming months I expect it to be advanced much more significantly. If you were to sort of — if I were to steal a follow-up question, I won’t let you — you won’t be giving it up — if I were to steal a follow-up question, well what’s — what’s — what’s the world think about what you’ve done? I would again reiterate, what we do isn’t just about what we say, it’s not just about what we do, we’re in the performance business. And so — so, if I look at the Treasury curve, if I look at the dollar, if I look at a lot of things that are internals inside of financial markets, I think what they’re broadly saying is that this Committee does own it, has the credibility to deliver it, and they believe, like I do, that we will. But I don’t want to leave you with a misimpression, we’ve got no magic wand. This isn’t something that we’re going to be able to carry out in days or weeks. But we’re going to deliver on the responsibility that Congress gave us, and today’s meeting, and the preparation for today’s meeting, was an important step towards that destination.
MICHAEL MCKEE. I’d like to follow-up on the task forces as well, and ask, what vetting did you do of the people that you appointed to the task forces. In particular, given Marc Andreessen’s substantial political spending, $25 million in just the past year to back candidates who oppose stricter AI regulation, how can the public be confident that a committee he co-chairs will provide an independent assessment of AI’s economic effects, rather than one aligned with the interests of the AI industry?
CHAIRMAN WARSH. Yeah, so I selected 15 incredible subject market — subject matter experts to tackle five of the most important questions that if we get the answers right, we’re going to do a far better job in delivering. And if we get the answers wrong, we have a problem. The comfort that I can give you and your listeners is, we’re the decision makers. The Chairman of the Board of the Federal Reserve and the members of the Board and the FOMC, we will be the consumers of the outputs from five different committees. The judgments we’re making will be informed by, but not at all determined by these outside groups. My theory of the case in establishing the task forces were to pick people with extraordinary talent, depth of expertise and a divergence of views inside every committee. So they too can have a family fight. This is not outsourcing to people that aren’t known and haven’t been vetted. This is seeing whether new ideas can catalyze a broader, better, more informed discussion inside the room. And I’m very confident that we’re going to be able to do that. I am impressed by the credentials of these 15 people. And full disclosure, I’ve known almost all of them for a very long time, and I think they’re going to give their best views on the subject, but ultimately, these are decisions we’re going to make and we’re accountable to our oversight committees and to the remit Congress gave us to deliver.
_____
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 7422.14 as this post is written
