Money Supply Charts Through June 2026

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.

The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following:

Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.

Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.

Here is the “M1 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on July 28, 2026 depicting data through June 2026, with a value of $19,831.5 Billion:

Here is the “M1 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 5.8%:

Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M1 Money Stock [M1SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 28, 2026: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:

Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.

Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on July 28, 2026, depicting data through June 2026, with a value of $23,155.2 Billion:

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 5.5%:

Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 Money Stock [M2SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed July 28, 2026: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7432.30 as this post is written

The U.S. Economic Situation – July 24, 2026 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, sustainable long-term economic vitality is to be realized.

There are an array of indications and other “warning signs” – many readily apparent – that current economic activity and financial market performance is accompanied by exceedingly perilous dynamics.

I have written extensively about this peril, including in the following:

“Building Financial Danger” (ongoing updates)

“A Special Note On Our Economic Situation”

“Forewarning Pronounced Economic Weakness”

“Thoughts Concerning The Next Financial Crisis”

“Was A Depression Successfully Avoided?”

“Has the Financial System Strengthened Since the Financial Crisis?”

“The Next Crash And Its Significance”

My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well.  Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact.  This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.

For long-term reference purposes, here is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1900, depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale (updated through July 22, 2026 with a last value of 52,218.58):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7408.30 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of July 19, 2026:

from page 28:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

from page 29:

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7457.69 as this post is written

S&P500 EPS Forecasts For 2026-2028 As Of July 17, 2026

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of July 17, 2026, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46/share; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; the Year 2018 value is $161.93/share; the Year 2019 value is $162.93/share; the Year 2020 value is $139.72/share; the year 2021 value is $208.12/share; the year 2022 value is $218.09/share; the year 2023 value is $221.36/share; the year 2024 value is $242.73/share; and the year 2025 value is $271.29/share:

Year 2026 estimate:

$341.72/share

Year 2027 estimate:

$404.03/share

Year 2028 estimate:

$455.36/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7457.69 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 61)

The following is the latest update of 9 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation.

I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last update June 16, 2026):

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST/, July 15, 2026.

–

The Federal Deficit (last updated April 3, 2026):

U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYFSD/, July 15, 2026.

–

Federal Net Outlays (last updated April 3, 2026):

U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, July 15, 2026.

–

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated April 9, 2026):

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State and local government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes: Income taxes [ASLPITAX], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ASLPITAX/, July 15, 2026.

–

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated July 10, 2026):

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks [TOTLL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTLL/, July 15, 2026.

–

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated July 10, 2026):

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks [TOTBKCR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR/, July 15, 2026.

–

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated July 2, 2026):

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED/, July 15, 2026.

–

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated July 2, 2026):

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART/, July 15, 2026.

–

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index Three Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated June 26, 2026):

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CFNAIMA3/, July 15, 2026.

–

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7573.45 as this post is written

The July 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The July 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 12, 2026. The headline is “War Leaves Economy With More Stubborn Inflation, Economists Project.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Forecasters expect the economy to grow 2.1% this year, up from 2% estimated in April, based on the change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product between the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026. Growth last year was 2%.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 25%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 80%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey [the previously published survey] was 33%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 72 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted July 2 – July 7. Not every economist answered every question.

–

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2026:  2.08%

full-year 2027:  2.20%

full-year 2028:  2.21%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2026: 4.33%

December 2027: 4.26%

December 2028: 4.22%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2026: 4.39%

December 2027: 4.26%

December 2028: 4.16%

CPI:

December 2026:  3.40%

December 2027:  2.40%

December 2028:  2.33%

Core PCE:

full-year 2026:  3.16%

full-year 2027:  2.43%

full-year 2028:  2.19%

(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7524.57 as this post is written

Recession Probability Models – July 2026

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession.

While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.

Please note that each of these models is updated regularly, and the results of these – as well as other recession models – can fluctuate significantly.

The first is the “Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator” from the New York Federal Reserve.  I wrote a post concerning this measure on March 1, 2010, titled “The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator.”

Currently (last updated July 7, 2026 using data through June 2026) this “Yield Curve” model shows a 16.0619% probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.  For comparison purposes, it showed a 14.9758% probability through May 2026, and a chart going back to 1960 is seen at the “Probability Of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread.” (pdf)

The second model is from Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger.  This model is described on the St. Louis Federal Reserve site (FRED) as follows:

Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., “An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching,” International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)

Additional details and explanations can be seen on the “U.S. Recession Probabilities” page.

This model, last updated on July 1, 2026 currently shows a .54% probability using data through May 2026.

Here is the FRED chart:

Data Source:  Piger, Jeremy Max and Chauvet, Marcelle, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [RECPROUSM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, accessed July 8, 2026:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RECPROUSM156N

–

The two models featured above can be compared against measures seen in recent posts.  For instance, as seen in the April 12, 2026 post titled “The April 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey“ economists surveyed averaged a 33% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7482.71 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – July 8, 2026 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra long-term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets – will occur. [note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has paramount significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” label]

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through July 8, 2026 with a last price of 7482.71), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7482.71 as this post is written