The March 2013 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 18, 2013.  The headline is “Easy Money Era a Long Game for Fed.”

Although I don’t agree with various aspects of the survey’s contents, I found numerous items to be notable, both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.

Notable excerpts from the article include:

According to the economists surveyed, circle these dates on your calendar: November 2013, May 2014 and June 2015. That is when on average they expect the Fed, respectively, to:
1) start slowing its monthly bond purchases,
2) stop buying bonds, and
3) begin thinking seriously about raising short-term interest rates, as unemployment reaches 6.5%.

also:

Economists surveyed by the Journal, on average, said they didn't expect the Fed's balance sheet to return to normal—not bloated with the many extra bonds purchased in its quantitative-easing programs—until December 2019. More than a decade after the financial crisis ended, in other words, the Fed might still be a big player in long-term bond markets, directly shaping long-term rates.

also:

They also said markets weren't overheating, despite a recent run of stock-market highs; on a scale of 0 to 10, they said froth in markets was about a 5.

As well, as to the question (seen in the spreadsheet detail) "Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months," the average was 15%.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2013:  2.3%

full-year 2014:  2.9%

full-year 2015:  3.0%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2013: 7.4%

December 2014: 6.8%

December 2015: 6.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2013: 2.41%

December 2014: 3.04%

December 2015: 3.61%

CPI:

December 2013:  2.1%

December 2014:  2.2%

December 2015:  2.4%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2013: $94.94

for 12/31/2014: $93.10

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1552.10 as this post is written