The May 2014 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 8, 2014.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Economists See Growth Rebound.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

One excerpt I found notable:

The majority of economists think there is a greater likelihood that growth will be higher than they expect. But that share, 71.8%, is smaller than the 75% reading a month ago.

And not all of the lost winter activity will be made up. On average, the economists in the survey scaled back their forecasts for total-2014 growth. They now think real GDP will grow 2.4% this year, down from the 2.7% forecast in April's survey.

One reason for the reduced outlook is a downshift in housing expectations. On average, the economists project housing starts will total 1.05 million for all of 2014, down from 1.08 million forecast in April and 1.11 million expected at the start of 2014.

As seen in the “Economist Q&A” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was seen to be roughly equal to that of April’s average response of approximately 12%.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2014:  2.4%

full-year 2015:  2.9%

full-year 2016:  2.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2014: 6.1%

December 2015: 5.6%

December 2016: 5.4%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2014: 3.28%

December 2015: 3.85%

December 2016: 4.22%

CPI:

December 2014:  2.0%

December 2015:  2.0%

December 2016:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2014: $97.63

for 12/31/2015: $96.26

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1875.63 as this post is written