The June 2014 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 12, 2014.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Economists Optimistic Stage Is Set for Pickup in Wage Growth.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

One excerpt:

Economists are increasingly looking for wage growth to pick up in coming months, a long-awaited development that would put more money in the pockets of consumers and could spur accelerated growth in the broader economy.

According to The Wall Street Journal's monthly survey of 48 economists—not all of whom answered every question—real gross domestic product is growing at an annual rate of 3.5% this quarter after contracting at least 1% in the weather-hobbled first quarter. After that, the U.S. economy is projected to grow at a 3% pace in each of the year's last two quarters.

As seen in the “Economic Indicators” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.36%, roughly equal to that of May’s average response of approximately 12%.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2014:  2.2%

full-year 2015:  2.9%

full-year 2016:  2.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2014: 6.1%

December 2015: 5.6%

December 2016: 5.4%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2014: 3.16%

December 2015: 3.76%

December 2016: 4.15%

CPI:

December 2014:  2.1%

December 2015:  2.1%

December 2016:  2.4%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2014: $99.45

for 12/31/2015: $95.88

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1930.11 as this post is written