The November 2014 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 13, 2014.  The headline is “Economists' View:  Lower Inflation, Decent Growth.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

According to the panel of 44 economists—not all of whom answered every question—yearly inflation as measured by the consumer-price index will end 2014 at 1.6%. That’s a sharp shift in just a couple of months. As recently as the September survey, the consensus view was that inflation would accelerate and end the year at 2.1%. Inflation was running at 1.7% in September, the latest Labor Department reading.

also:

Low energy prices will help support a steady but unspectacular expansion through mid-2015, the panelists say. They expect inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to grow at an annualized 2.7% pace this quarter and 2.8% in the first half of 2015. The unemployment rate will drift lower from October’s 5.8%, according to the consensus view of forecasters. They forecast the rate will end 2014 at 5.7% and finish 2015 at 5.3%.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.73%; October’s average response was 11.88%.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2014:  2.2%

full-year 2015:  2.8%

full-year 2016:  2.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2014: 5.7%

December 2015: 5.3%

December 2016: 5.0%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2014: 2.52%

December 2015: 3.34%

December 2016: 3.80%

CPI:

December 2014:  1.6%

December 2015:  2.0%

December 2016:  2.2%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2014: $78.82

for 12/31/2015: $82.78

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2033.38 as this post is written