The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 13, 2014. The headline is “Economists' View: Lower Inflation, Decent Growth.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
According to the panel of 44 economists—not all of whom answered every question—yearly inflation as measured by the consumer-price index will end 2014 at 1.6%. That’s a sharp shift in just a couple of months. As recently as the September survey, the consensus view was that inflation would accelerate and end the year at 2.1%. Inflation was running at 1.7% in September, the latest Labor Department reading.
Low energy prices will help support a steady but unspectacular expansion through mid-2015, the panelists say. They expect inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to grow at an annualized 2.7% pace this quarter and 2.8% in the first half of 2015. The unemployment rate will drift lower from October’s 5.8%, according to the consensus view of forecasters. They forecast the rate will end 2014 at 5.7% and finish 2015 at 5.3%.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.73%; October’s average response was 11.88%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2014: 2.2%
full-year 2015: 2.8%
full-year 2016: 2.8%
December 2014: 5.7%
December 2015: 5.3%
December 2016: 5.0%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2014: 2.52%
December 2015: 3.34%
December 2016: 3.80%
December 2014: 1.6%
December 2015: 2.0%
December 2016: 2.2%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2014: $78.82
for 12/31/2015: $82.78
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2033.38 as this post is written