The April 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The April 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 7, 2016.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Most Economists Expect Next Fed Rate Increase in June.”  As indicated in the article, 69 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question.

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The private forecasters on average saw the fed-funds rate at 0.84% at the end of 2016, suggesting two quarter-point rate increases this year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 19.03%; the average response in March’s survey was 19.84%.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2016:  2.1%

full-year 2017:  2.3%

full-year 2018:  2.2%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2016: 4.7%

December 2017: 4.6%

December 2018: 4.7%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2016: 2.31%

December 2017: 2.82%

December 2018: 3.25%

CPI:

December 2016:  1.8%

December 2017:  2.2%

December 2018:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2016: $42.23

for 12/31/2017: $47.40

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2039.66 as post is written