Recently McKinsey released a report titled "An economy that works: Job creation and America's future" (June 2011)(pdf)
While I don't agree with various of the report's assumptions and conclusions, I am posting the report because it is a notable long-term forecast and discussion of the U.S. employment situation.
An excerpt from the Executive Summary (page 1):
The results of our analysis are sobering: only in the most optimistic scenario will the United States return to full employment before 2020. Achieving this outcome will require sustained demand growth, rising US competitiveness in the global economy, and better matching of US workers to jobs.
In a footnote to the above excerpt, McKinsey defines "full employment" as 5% unemployment.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1337.88 as this post is written