Updates On Economic Indicators October 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 24, 2011:



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The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the September 27 update titled “Index forecasts continued weak growth” :

The September update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, remaining below 2% through February. Persistent unemployment, elevated debt levels, high energy and food prices and low confidence have stalled consumer spending. Businesses are hesitant to expand amid uncertainty.

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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 10/14/11 the WLI was at 120.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at -10.1%.

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The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of August 31 was at 41.5, as seen below:



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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 10-15-09 to 10-15-11:



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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the October 20 release, the LEI was at 116.4 and the CEI was at 103.3 in September.

An excerpt from the October 20 release:

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI is pointing to soft economic conditions through the end of 2011. There is a risk that already low confidence – consumer, business and investor – could weaken further, putting downward pressure on demand and tipping the economy into recession. The probability of a downturn starting over the next few months remains at about 50 percent.”

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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation


SPX at 1229.05 as this post is written