The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 10, 2011. The headline is “Economists See Smaller Chance of U.S. Recession."
I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts:
The 52 economists surveyed in November—not all of whom answer every question—put 1-in-4 odds that the U.S. will experience a recession in the next 12 months, down from a 1-in-3 chance they were seeing just two months ago, when concerns were at their highest level since the recent recession ended in June 2009.
also:
The economists, on average, put 2-in-3 odds that the euro zone will fall into recession.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2011 : 1.7%
full-year 2012: 2.3%
full-year 2013: 2.6%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2011: 9.0%
December 2012: 8.7%
December 2013: 8.1%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2011: 2.17%
December 2012: 2.79%
December 2013: 3.36%
CPI:
December 2011: 3.3%
December 2012: 2.2%
December 2013: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2011: $88.68
for 12/31/2012: $91.60
(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1192.98 as this post is written
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