The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 17, 2012. The headline is “Economy Poised to Nudge Ahead in 2013.”
Although I don't agree with various aspects of the survey's contents, I found numerous items to be notable, both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.
A couple of excerpts:
As 2012 comes to a close, the U.S. economy is also turning a page: The recovery is over. It looks like 2013 will be the start of a more normal, though hardly robust, period of growth.
also:
But even with that looming threat, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal put the odds of a recession next year at just 24%. Not coincidentally, those odds are closely aligned with the odds—26%—that the economists put on a standoff that allows the tax and spending policies to take effect. Get past the cliff, and most economists expect reasonably solid growth.
–
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2012: 1.9%
full-year 2013: 2.3%
full-year 2014: 2.8%
full-year 2015: 2.9%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2012: 7.8%
December 2013: 7.5%
December 2014: 7.0%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2012: 1.67%
December 2013: 2.26%
December 2014: 2.88%
CPI:
December 2012: 2.1%
December 2013: 2.1%
December 2014: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2012: $88.90
for 12/31/2013: $92.24
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1421.34 as this post is written
No comments:
Post a Comment