Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Disturbing Charts (Update 15)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 61 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.
These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.
All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.
The following nine charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
Housing starts (last updated 6-17-14):
Housing Starts
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The Federal Deficit (last updated 3-14-14):
Federal Deficit
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Federal Net Outlays (last updated 3-14-14):
Federal Net Outlays
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State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-27-14):
State And Local Income Tax Receipts
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Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-11-14):
Total Loans and Leases
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Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-11-14):
Total Bank Credit
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M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 7-3-14):
money multiplier
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Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 7-3-14):
median duration of unemployment
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Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 7-3-14):
Labor Force Participation Rate
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This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI, and its 3-month moving average CFNAI-MA3) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 6-23-14):
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
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I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1973.28 as this post is written

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