Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The May 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 19, 2016: (current reading of .10; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.22):
As of May 13, 2016 (incorporating data through May 6, 2016) the WLI was at 135.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 5.7%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of May 13, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Down Slightly, YoY at 1.01%“:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through May 14, 2016:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the May 19, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.9, the CEI was at 113.6, and the LAG was 121.5 in April.
An excerpt from the May 19 release:
“The U.S. LEI picked up sharply in April, with all components except consumer expectations contributing to the rebound from an essentially flat first quarter,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Despite a slow start in 2016, labor market and financial indicators, and housing permits all point to a moderate growth trend continuing in 2016.”
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2040.04 as this post is written