Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The July 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 21, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is .16; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.12):
As of July 15, 2016 (incorporating data through July 8, 2016) the WLI was at 137.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.9%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of July 15, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up .3”:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through July 17, 2016:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the July 21, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.7, the CEI was at 113.8, and the LAG was 121.9 in June.
An excerpt from the July 21 release:
“The U.S. LEI picked up in June, reversing its May decline,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Improvements in initial claims for unemployment insurance, building permits, and financial indicators were the primary drivers. While the LEI continues to point to moderating economic growth in the U.S. through the end of 2016, the expansion still appears resilient enough to weather volatility in financial markets and a moderating outlook in labor markets.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of July 21 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index 'Picked Up in June'“:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2171.44 as this post is written