Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Two Other Views Of Employment Growth

In the last post ("Monthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payrolls - August 8, 2016") I featured five long-term charts showing the monthly change in the Total Nonfarm Payrolls measure.  While the monthly change in this measure, as well as the official Unemployment Rate (U-3),  are the most prevalent statistics regarding employment and unemployment levels respectively, there are many other lesser-known measures - and associated dynamics - that deserve much greater recognition.  Some of these other unemployment measures have been featured on this site.
Among these lesser-known measures that deserve (much) greater recognition are the Employment-Population Ratio and the "percent change in employment" measure compared to other past economic recoveries [as defined by the NBER BCDC.]
I have discussed the Employment-Population Ratio in the August 11, 2010 post ("Employment-Population Ratio - Chart And Comments") as well as the February 10, 2016 post ("The Employment-Population Ratio.")
Below is an updated chart (from January 1948 through July 2016) of the ratio.  The July 2016 value is 59.7%:
Employment-Population Ratio
source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Employment-Population Ratio [EMRATIO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 8, 2016;
The second measure is the "percent change in employment" measure compared to other past economic recoveries.  This is one comparison of job creation since the economic recovery as compared against similarly-defined past recovery periods.
Below is a chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (last updated August 5, 2016) that shows the "Change In U.S. Employment" on a percentage basis of both the current recovery (red line) as well as those previous, as shown:
percentage change in employment during recoveries
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2180.89 as this post is written

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