The August 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 11, 2016. The headline is “Economists See Election-Induced Uncertainty Harming U.S. Economy.” As indicated in the article, 62 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question.
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
The respondents trimmed their forecasts for economic growth over the course of 2016. The panel now expects growth of 1.8% over the course of 2016, down from an estimate of 2% last month and 2.5% at the beginning of the year. Their forecasts for the unemployment rate were little changed.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 20.95%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 50%. For reference, the average response in July's survey was 21.91%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2016: 1.8%
full-year 2017: 2.2%
full-year 2018: 2.1%
December 2016: 4.7%
December 2017: 4.6%
December 2018: 4.7%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2016: 1.80%
December 2017: 2.34%
December 2018: 2.79%
December 2016: 1.7%
December 2017: 2.2%
December 2018: 2.2%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2016: $46.15
for 12/31/2017: $51.78
for 12/31/2018: $54.98
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2186.24 as post is written