Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The September 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 22, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is -.55; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.07):
As of September 16, 2016 (incorporating data through September 9, 2016) the WLI was at 139.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 8.7%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of September 16, 2016:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through September 17, 2016:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the September 22, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.1, the CEI was at 114.1, and the LAG was 122.1 in August.
An excerpt from the September 22 release:
“While the U.S. LEI declined in August, its trend still points to moderate economic growth in the months ahead,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Although strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators are roughly balanced, positive contributions from the financial indicators were more than offset by weakening of nonfinancial indicators, such as leading indicators of labor markets, suggesting some risks to growth persist.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of September 22:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2177.18 as this post is written