The October 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The October 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 13, 2016.  The headline is “Economists Believe a Recession Is Likely Within Next Four Years.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

The current expansion began in June 2009, and has now continued for 88 months, making it the fourth-longest period of growth in records stretching to 1854.

also:

The survey of 59 academic, business and financial economists was conducted from Oct. 7 to Oct. 11.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 20.24%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 55%.  For reference, the average response in September’s survey was 20.25%.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2016:  1.8%

full-year 2017:  2.2%

full-year 2018:  2.0%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2016: 4.8%

December 2017: 4.7%

December 2018: 4.7%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2016: 1.81%

December 2017: 2.30%

December 2018: 2.69%

CPI:

December 2016:  1.7%

December 2017:  2.2%

December 2018:  2.2%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2016: $49.74

for 12/31/2017: $54.03

for 12/31/2018: $56.24

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2132.55 as post is written