Philadelphia Fed – 4th Quarter 2016 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2016 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 14, 2016.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:

Real GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2016:  1.5%

full-year 2017:  2.2%

full-year 2018:  2.1%

full-year 2019:  2.1%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2016: 4.9%

for 2017: 4.7%

for 2018: 4.6%

for 2019: 4.7%

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Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 9.9%, 14.0%, 15.0%, 16.5% and 18.9% for each of the quarters from Q4 2016 through Q4 2017, respectively.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2025) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 1.4% to 2.3% range.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2162.96 as this post is written