The January 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 12, 2017. The headline is “Forecasters See Upside Risks to Their Economic Outlooks at Highest in More Than Two Years.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
In the most recent survey, 64% of respondents said the risk was to the upside, the highest in over two years, and a reversal from the mood of recent years, which was focused on potential risks from a global economic slowdown.
In anticipation of Mr. Trump’s presidency, economic forecasts have already risen. The average forecast is for GDP growth of 2.4% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018. That is a 0.2 percentage point increase for 2017 and 0.5 percentage point for 2018.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 67 academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey occurred on January 6, 2017 to January 10, 2017.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 16.49%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 75%. For reference, the average response in December’s survey was 16.79%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2016: 2.0%
full-year 2017: 2.4%
full-year 2018: 2.5%
full-year 2019: 2.2%
December 2017: 4.5%
December 2018: 4.4%
December 2019: 4.5%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2017: 2.89%
December 2018: 3.36%
December 2017: 2.3%
December 2018: 2.4%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2017: $56.31
for 12/31/2018: $59.28
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” label)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2270.44 as post is written